Officially, inflation is said to be 2.7%, but the White House has released a figure of 1.6%—when I saw this information, I sat up straight.

Over a decade of experience in the crypto world has taught me that such weak signals often mean something big is about to happen. Yesterday, during the Christmas holiday, trading volume was extremely light, and Bitcoin was just meandering sideways around $87,000. I didn’t think much of it and started to buy in batches.

Someone asked me why. The technicals aren’t particularly strong. But I remember how the 2020 bull market, which swept through the entire market, came about—interest rates were cut to zero, and the Federal Reserve’s printing press was running 24/7. The current situation is starting to feel very similar.

**You Need to Learn How to Read Data**

In November, the CPI indeed dropped to 2.7%, and core CPI fell to 2.6%, the lowest numbers since 2021. But the key isn’t these public figures; it’s what White House economic advisor Hassett suddenly said about 1.6%.

This guy used to be a “hardcore advisor” close to a big shot, and his comments are definitely not casual jokes. Plus, the Fed just completed its third rate cut of the year on December 18. You can see what they’re signaling—the room for rate cuts is still large.

To put it plainly, market expectations have already shifted. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of further rate cuts has recently surged. This change in expectations is the best fertilizer for a market rally.

**History Has Its Patterns**

I looked back over the Fed’s rate cut cycles over the past 20 years and found an interesting pattern: every time a rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin tends to surge dramatically. The 2019 cycle is a prime example—when the Fed started cutting rates, BTC went from around 3,000 to over 11,000. Liquidity in the market became abundant, and funds had to find a place to go—cryptocurrencies became the “safe haven” of choice.

The current environment is almost a mirror image of that time. U.S. economic growth is slowing down, inflation isn’t fully under control yet, but there’s a clear downward pressure. In this context, policy will naturally lean toward easing. And what does easing mean? It means money becomes cheaper, and institutions and retail investors will seek higher-yield assets.

Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” becomes especially attractive now. Whether for hedging inflation or pursuing higher returns, it’s a good choice.

**Why I’m Building Positions Now**

$87,000 may seem high, but if you look not at the absolute price but at the relative position in the cycle—that’s actually a good time to get in. Market sentiment isn’t fully overheated yet, the public is still watching, and institutional positioning has just begun.

Once the market truly believes that a rate-cut cycle is coming, and once the expectation of abundant liquidity is fully priced in, it won’t be at $87,000 anymore. I’ve seen too many investors who keep waiting end up chasing at the top, so I choose to buy in batches.

This isn’t about gambling on short-term movements; it’s about betting on the start of a major cycle. Economic cycles, policy cycles, market cycles—they all have their rhythms, and history keeps repeating itself in various ways.