Why are prices declining in a bearish manner? Why is there not enough strength for a rebound? Why are ETFs (ETF) exiting? I have clearly predicted that by 2026, we will face a completely different battleground from the past.

#加密市场小幅回暖 #2026行情预测
Every time the market shifts from bullish to bearish, it’s not just a price cycle; it’s a complete reorganization of market narratives, financial structures, and volatility models — we are now at a historic crossroads of this kind, the “generation shift” in market logic.
First, the short-term (during Christmas): it is a options hunting ground in the “liquidity vacuum,” not the start of a trend.
At the end of 2018 and 2022, we directly experienced the impact of this “holiday.” Market characteristics are:
1. False breakout spreads: Due to shallow depth, a small amount of money can create the illusion of breaking through the main resistance, tempting traders to buy high and sell low, then reversing the trend quickly.
2. Narrowing and delaying volatility: Prices seem frozen, but this is just calm before the storm. All suppressed volatility caused by weak liquidity will be released in a concentrated manner before or after the expiration of large options (December 27) or institutional re-entry (early January), causing sharp directional swings.
Current operational tips:
Do not trade directionally based on “breakouts” or “breaking” the current narrow range (BTC 86.5k-92k, ETH 2.94k-3.18k).
Possible actions: Place “position-sensing” orders (like BTC 81.5k, ETH 2.75k, UNI 5.4). If sharp volatility occurs due to options expiration or liquidity depletion, these low-price orders are prepared for such situations. They will help you acquire premium shares when no one is paying attention.
The fundamental rule: stay alert, let the market reveal itself. Your task is not to participate in this short chaos but to protect your capital and wait for stability.
Second, the long-term (2026 forecasts): it is a “deity retreat and new king’s coronation” pattern revolution.
The main logic that drove the cryptocurrency market over the past two years — “easy liquidity expectations” — has begun to fade. The market is painfully adapting to a new pattern of “tightening liquidity margins and growth based on real demand.”
Three market cycle echoes:
2013-2014 cycle: The story was “digital money from point to point,” driven by Mt.Gox and retail traders. After the bubble burst, the market discovered that the “payment” story was false, entering a long value discovery phase.
2017-2018 cycle: The story was “world computer” and ICOs, driven by hot liquidity from global retail traders. After the bubble burst, the market found most applications were illusions, entering a “building phase.”
2020-2022 cycle: The story was “institutional transformation” and “unlimited quantitative easing,” driven by global central bank printing. After the bubble burst, the market realized that “institutions” would also surrender, and a more solid foundation for stories was needed.
Now, we are in the “model stabilization” phase of the fourth cycle: the story is “digital value storage / settlement layer,” but the main driving force has shifted from “central bank liquidity” to “organized ETF buying.” This is a fundamental shift from “macro liquidity risks” to “product demand (α).”
Strategic revolutionary signals for the coming years:
1. Abandon the stereotypical “bull market after halving”: previous empirical formulas have become partially ineffective. The halving will influence supply, but the price ceiling in 2026 will be determined by demand from the demand side (net ETF flows) and the macro side (interest rate cuts). The report’s valuation that “120K is the new ceiling” is based on logical calculations according to the new formula, and should be given great attention.
2. Become a “data trader”: the main rhythm in the future will shift from “FOMC meetings” to “non-farm payroll data releases” and “weekly ETF flow data.” The former sets the overall mood, the latter determines direct demand. Reorganize your trading schedule around these two events.
3. “Transform Bitcoin’s characteristics”: it increasingly resembles a “high-volatility tech stock,” strongly correlated with the Nasdaq index, and very sensitive to interest rate changes. This means that analyzing the US stock market and interest rate forecasts will be more effective in determining BTC’s medium-term trend than on-chain data analysis.
4. Change the logic of altcoins (Altcoins): in the absence of broad liquidity, funds will only flow into projects with stronger narratives, genuine demand, and solid fundamentals. The previously thriving altcoin season will weaken, but the structural bull market will be unusually fierce. For this reason, focus critically on DeFi fundamentals (like UNI), L2 pioneers (like OP), and RWA standards (like ONDO), as they represent “real demand.”
Third, the comprehensive action plan: from “believers” to “dual macro and mini monitoring traders”
Based on the above, your personality must fully evolve:
1. At the strategic level (macro path):
Monitor two schedules: US non-farm payroll data and US CPI data. These determine the speed of “support withdrawal” by the Fed.
Monitor fund flows: weekly flow of US Bitcoin ETF funds. It is a “market thermometer” and “engine speed counter.”
Establish a new price framework: adjust the main BTC fluctuation range to $80,000 (strong support) - $120,000 (new resistance). Begin executing large trades within this range.
2. At the tactical level (micro path):
Implement our “final battle plan,” but the timing of buys should be more closely linked to these data points. For example, on “non-farm payroll day,” when the market drops out of fear of bad data, execute “main force” position-building trades.
Be more selective with altcoins: invest only in projects that still generate real income, have strong reserves, and active developers (meaning “projects in building”). Use operational data instead of empty stories as the basis for investment.
Adjust profit-taking expectations: realistically set your final BTC target from “150-200K” to “120-130K.” This will help you exit more calmly at the top and realize profits.
Genuine experience comes from the ability to understand all harsh facts, develop a strict, calm, and executable plan, and stick to it like a machine. This report did not kill the market; it killed unrealistic dreams and set a new, more complex battleground for us, the pragmatic and prepared.
Now, the hunting rules have been updated, so be patient and wait for the trumpet to announce the start of the game according to the new rules.