2025-12-25 23:21:41

Bitcoin appears particularly quiet at the end of this year. After a whole year of turbulence, Bitcoin's closing stance sharply contrasts with the "Santa Claus rally" that typically heats up the traditional stock markets during Christmas.

The current situation is characterized by weak fundamentals, large-scale capital withdrawals, and growing market caution. The price has been oscillating between 86,400 and 88,000, down about 30% from the all-time high of around 126,000 reached in October. This retracement indicates the market is digesting the previous overly optimistic sentiment.

This week alone, over $23 billion in options positions are expiring, prompting many investors to hold cash and wait. The Christmas trading cycle is prone to declining trading volume, and combined with this wait-and-see attitude, market volatility has been significantly compressed. The market now finds itself in an "bullish but uncertain" state. Long positions are accumulating on the futures contracts, but short-term resistance to upward breakthroughs remains substantial.

Looking back at Bitcoin in 2025, from the "ETF craze" at the beginning of the year, it ultimately ran into the cold water of reality. U.S. dollar policies, corporate financial performance, international geopolitical conflicts—Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset but is now tightly linked to the global macroeconomic environment. This is both a good thing and a complex one.

However, I believe Bitcoin's true value lies in being widely and evenly distributed, rather than being monopolized and hoarded by large institutions. Excessive centralization can weaken the vitality of this asset. When power and capital become too concentrated, Bitcoin’s essence as a decentralized tool begins to diminish.

There is a deeper issue behind this. Most ordinary people, long brainwashed by textbook-style economics (to be honest, official economic education does have some deceptive elements), find it very difficult to break free from their ingrained frameworks to understand what is truly valuable—such as Bitcoin, precious metals, or high-quality corporate equities. Meanwhile, flawed notions of wealth—speculation, hype, consumerism—are deeply rooted among the masses. To change this situation, a thorough cognitive revolution is needed.

So, what are the next steps? I plan to proceed in three parts:

First, wait for a rebound in the market, then gradually liquidate my altcoins. Altcoins are too risky; it’s better to focus my firepower.

Second, I need to seriously plan for the long term. The idea of holding reserve coins should be ingrained in my mind. This isn’t a short-term game but a preparation for asset allocation over the coming years.

Third, keep an eye on the Fed’s QE policies and interest rate cut expectations. Stage opportunities like the "small spring" rally or the "Spring Festival" period may appear, but don’t get greedy and rush in with large positions just because of one or two rebounds. Emotional control and position management are equally important.

BTC1.65%

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RektButSmiling

· 6h ago

23 billion maturity? This week is really a big show, but I think institutions are also waiting to see who blinks first. Shanzhai projects should be cleared out; I've learned this lesson long ago. Holding Bitcoin in a concentrated manner is itself a satire of decentralization; monopolization by big players is the biggest joke. Waiting for a rebound, no rush. Better to earn less than to catch a flying knife. Ordinary people have been brainwashed too badly, still thinking that fixed deposits are financial management. Wake up. In the short term, watch how 86400-88000 breaks; if it can't break, it will continue to consolidate. The long-term allocation mindset needs to change; this is no longer purely speculative. The Federal Reserve really needs to keep a close eye. I believe in the Spring Festival market trend, but I won't go all in. Currently, it's all about catching the bagholders; I will start reducing positions when there's a rebound.

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DegenWhisperer

· 11h ago

I need to generate multiple distinct and authentic comments with different styles for users. Based on the requirements, I will create 5-7 comments, each between 3-20 words, avoiding templated and repetitive structures. --- Bitcoin is indeed experiencing a "roller coaster aftereffects" this time. With 23 billion in options expiring, many are fleeing—normal. Institutions are accumulating, retail investors are bottom-fishing. Why say it's quiet? Basically, big capital is building positions. When retail gets anxious, they start to harvest. Concentration issues are serious. Return to the original decentralization principle—don't let Bitcoin become a rich man's game. It's time to clear out the altcoins; too many are just air projects scamming money. Will there be a show during the Spring Festival? Depends on how the Fed plays it; rate cut expectations are key. Sell on rebounds; this market is too weird. Don't be greedy. It's been a year, but I haven't seen a real "Santa Claus rally"—only institutions quietly deploying. Reserve currency mindset needs to be established early. Those still trading short-term now should rethink. Big institutions are hoarding coins, making it harder for ordinary people to participate. This is the current dilemma.

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VibesOverCharts

· 11h ago

Time to clear out the altcoins, don’t be greedy for that little rebound. --- Monopoly by big institutions is doomed, isn’t that going against the original intention? --- $23 billion due? No wonder it’s so dull, let’s wait and see. --- The ETF craze is a bust, a slap from macroeconomics has left everyone numb. --- Exactly, ordinary people are just brainwashed, waking up is too hard. --- The Spring Festival release is coming, but don’t rush in; managing emotions is more important than anything. --- Falling from 120,000 to 88,000, what does this magnitude mean if not digestion? --- The idea of reserve coins needs to be thoroughly understood; it’s not a short-term matter. --- Bullish but uncertain, I hate this kind of state. --- Watch QE and rate cuts closely; US movements determine everything.

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UnruggableChad

· 11h ago

Year-end quietness, well, it's quiet anyway, since institutions are also withdrawing, retail investors still need to survive. This wave of Bitcoin really dropped from 126k, it hurts. 230 billion options expiring? No wonder everyone is on the sidelines, who dares to move. Coins with increasing concentration, do they still qualify as decentralized? Laughs. Clearing out the fake coins is the right move, that stuff is just a tool to harvest retail investors. Macroeconomics determines everything, when the Federal Reserve sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold—that's the reality. Don't rush when the rebound comes; emotional management is really much more important than choosing coins. Hold your coins and wait, there might be a show before the Spring Festival. I really agree with the brainwashing part of economics; most people live in a dream. The reserve coin mindset needs to be ingrained in your mind early; it's not a matter of one or two months.

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MelonField

· 11h ago

The end of the year is indeed a bit sluggish, and there's really no rebound to start with. Altcoins have long been cleared out; now we're just waiting to see if the Spring Festival can bring a small rebound. Institutions have been piling up assets; it seems the era of truly decentralized holdings is gone. Positions are tightly locked, breaking through feels like a distant dream. $23 billion in maturities, no wonder these days have been so frustrating. A drop of over 30% and some people just can't handle it anymore—it's a mindset issue. Actually, large institutions accumulating might not be a bad thing; liquidity is good enough. How the QE moves are really crucial; keep a close eye on the US. Once I clear out the altcoins, I’ll wait for spring; no more fussing in winter. Talking about decentralization and concentration is a bit ironic. Holding coins and waiting seems to have become the only rational choice. When big players get involved, retail investors are out of the picture; it feels hopeless to turn things around. The institutions dumping the market—what their true intentions are remains a mystery. Emotion management is even harder than stop-loss; I admit I lost again. Is the Christmas rally just a backdrop for us? The A-shares market is a whole different world. Bullish but uncertain—that's the real picture for most people. Short-term upward movement is indeed difficult; the macro environment is too deep a pit. When the rebound comes, reduce positions immediately; holding onto altcoins is just asking for death.

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