The market often only finds opportunities at the most desperate times, and now is such a moment.

The Christmas atmosphere should be lively, but Bitcoin is hovering around $88,000. Honestly, this calm makes me feel uneasy. After surging to $89,000 on Friday, it stabilized the $88,000 support—at least it avoided the awkward situation of "rushing up and crashing down" earlier.

The long-awaited rate hike in Japan has finally been implemented, and the market's panic has somewhat eased on the surface. But I have to be honest: beneath this apparent stability, there are undercurrents, and several overlooked risk signals have been flashing.

**Let's look at the technical analysis**

Bitcoin is currently stuck at the end of a converging triangle, with the core oscillation range between $87,000 and $89,500. What’s different this time is that during the pullback, trading volume has been shrinking, indicating weakening selling pressure. It sounds like a good sign, but a closer look reveals something interesting.

A key detail is that Bitcoin is still being tightly held down by the descending trendline drawn from the October high, with no significant breakout yet. What does this mean? The market is repairing itself, but the momentum to push higher is clearly insufficient.

What’s more uncomfortable is the 4-hour chart, where Bitcoin remains trapped within a downtrend channel. The resistance zone above is solid, and there’s no sign of an effective breakout. Each rebound is making lower highs, and this "step-by-step downward" rhythm is quite worrying.

Ethereum is also not in an easy situation. Although it is holding above $2900, the psychological barrier at $3000 has been broken. Some analysts are even suggesting that Ethereum might be forming a head and shoulders pattern—if that happens, we may need to reassess the entire market structure.