VanEck Report: Bitcoin Enters Structural Rebalancing, Building Up for a Rise in 2026

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Author: Micah Zimmerman

Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin experienced intense volatility. Especially in December, prices fell nearly 9%, and volatility surged to the highest level since April 2025. However, VanEck pointed out in its mid-December “ChainCheck” report that market liquidity is improving, and speculative leverage seems to be resetting, providing cautious optimism for long-term holders.

VanEck’s digital asset analysts painted a complex picture in the report: despite still-weak on-chain activity, the liquidity environment is improving, and speculative leverage is gradually being cleared, offering a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

The report specifically highlights behavioral differences among various investor groups. Digital asset treasury companies continued to buy the dip, adding 42,000 BTC in December, the largest single-month increase since July, pushing their total holdings past 1 million BTC.

In contrast, Bitcoin exchange-traded product investors reduced their holdings. This underscores a market shift from retail-led speculation to institutional asset accumulation.

VanEck analysts also mentioned that some digital asset treasury companies are exploring new financing methods, such as issuing preferred stock instead of common stock to raise funds for purchasing Bitcoin and maintaining operations, reflecting a more strategic long-term approach.

On-chain data also reveals divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for 1 to 5 years showed significant activity, possibly due to profit-taking or rebalancing; meanwhile, tokens held for over 5 years remain largely “sleeping.”

VanEck interprets this as: cyclical or short-term participants are selling assets, while the most seasoned holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s future.

Bitcoin Miners Face Hashrate Decline Challenges

Miners are also in a tough spot. VanEck data shows that the total network hashrate dropped 4% in December, the largest decline since April 2024. This is due to reduced production in high-hashrate regions like Xinjiang under regulatory pressure. Meanwhile, the breakeven electricity costs for mainstream mining machines are decreasing, indicating shrinking profit margins for miners.

However, VanEck notes that historically, a decline in hashrate can be a bullish reverse indicator: in past instances, each sustained drop in hashrate has often been followed by Bitcoin price increases within 90 to 180 days.

VanEck’s analysis is based on its proprietary GEO framework, which evaluates Bitcoin’s structural health from three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, rather than just short-term price fluctuations.

From the GEO perspective, the improvement in liquidity and increased holdings by digital asset treasury companies somewhat offset signals like stagnant active addresses and declining transaction fees.

On a macro level, the outlook for Bitcoin becomes more complex. The US dollar index has fallen to a nearly three-month low, boosting precious metals prices, but cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin continue to face pressure.

However, the evolution of the financial ecosystem may provide new support. Market observers have noted the rise of “All-in-One Exchanges,” platforms dedicated to integrating stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, using AI-driven trading and settlement systems.

Just last week, Coinbase launched an expanded feature set similar to “All-in-One Exchanges,” adding stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and more. VanEck believes that from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms, various institutions are rushing into this space to compete for market share, which could, in the long run, enhance Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Remains Significant

Nevertheless, high volatility remains a hallmark of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled in three, the absence of extreme surges and crashes seen in previous cycles has led to more rational market expectations. Future Bitcoin movements may become more stable, with medium-term investors facing smaller cyclical swings rather than the large ups and downs of the past.

VanEck summarizes that the overall market is currently in a correction phase: short- and medium-term speculative activity is waning, long-term holders are steadfast, and institutional accumulation continues. Coupled with miners reducing scale, convergence of volatility, and macroeconomic dynamics, the market is in a period of structural rebalancing.

As 2025 approaches its end, VanEck believes Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase, reflecting a maturing market. This period of consolidation could lay the groundwork for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.