1. Market Overview

Based on the provided candlestick data, Bitcoin's current market reference price is 87,724.5, derived from the latest daily closing price. Over the past 14 trading days, the daily chart shows that after a significant retracement from the high of 94,476, the fluctuation range has noticeably narrowed. Closing prices have remained within the 87,500 to 88,900 range for multiple consecutive days, with overall trading volume gradually declining. In the past two trading days, volume has shrunk markedly, with the most recent daily volume dropping to only 59.47, just a fraction of the peak volume in this cycle. Hourly candlestick data indicates that in the past 48 hours, BTC's price center has continuously moved downward, repeatedly testing support around 87,500, with short-term volatility decreasing. After brief rebounds, prices quickly fell back, showing signs of fatigue. From news and analyst perspectives, current market sentiment is cautious, with mainstream views leaning neutral to bearish. News repeatedly emphasizes the loss of the $90,000 level, attracting market attention, with "BTC holding above $87,000" becoming a hot topic. Some analyst opinions, such as "short-term Bitcoin holders remain active, showing a balanced buy-sell dynamic," reflect a market with intertwined bullish and bearish forces, with funds adopting a wait-and-see attitude. ETF net outflows continue, institutional participation weakens, and liquidity contraction further cools the market.

2. Technical Analysis
The 14-day high was at 94,476 in the early part of the range, with the lowest point at 83,822.8. Recently, the highest price reached 88,940, forming a solid resistance zone, with multiple attempts to break through in the past 10 days unsuccessful. The current daily close is 87,724.5, with recent lows at 86,420, where the price has stabilized short-term, becoming a key support level. Hourly data shows upward movements encountering resistance in the 87,800-88,000 range, with multiple rebounds failing to establish stability above this zone, making short-term breakthroughs difficult. From the perspective of volatility and volume structure, the peak volume on daily candles occurred during the early decline phase at 32,078.7, followed by a general decrease, indicating waning bullish momentum. Market activity has cooled significantly, with volume shrinking more in recent days, suggesting large funds are mostly observing or withdrawing. Hourly fluctuations are concentrated between 87,150 and 88,000, with several periods of only a few hundred units traded, lacking market-driving power. Support and resistance levels: strong support is at 86,420-87,500; if broken, further decline toward around 85,100 is likely. Resistance above is in the 88,000-89,000 range; breaking through this zone is challenging, and if volume does not increase, rebound heights will be limited. Overall, the trend has shifted from a high-level retreat into a range-bound oscillation, with no clear short-term reversal signals.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Latest market news shows that a Bitcoin whale, after years of silence, transferred 400 BTC to OKX to realize profits, practically confirming ongoing profit-taking pressure. Among all news, "BTC holding above $87,000" remains a focal point, with multiple analysts noting that even amid emotional fluctuations, funds are still accumulating at lower levels, indicating adjustments in the chip structure. Policy data indicates no significant new policy changes in the past 24 hours, one week, or one month, maintaining a neutral macro regulatory environment. Coupled with ETF outflows for four consecutive days and institutional investors' cautious stance, funds are generally conservative. Market short-term volatility aligns with news reports highlighting "liquidity drying up" and "decreased institutional participation." Comparing news and market movements, every fluctuation near $87,000 attracts discussions of "rebound or further decline." However, despite ETF outflows, whale transfers, or negative sentiment, panic splitting has not occurred; the market remains in consolidation and oscillation, with the state of "failed dips and pressured rebounds" clearly evident in the short term.

4. Analyst Opinions
Analysts generally suggest cautious holding, taking profits on rallies, and managing risks prudently. For example, statements like "The latest version of BTC long liquidation is controlled at $60,000 and below, with 100x leverage at around 87,700..." and "Traders who have recently gained can take profits, with medium- to long-term gains of 50%, while protecting costs and continuing to hold. Near the market price of BTC" reflect mainstream strategies emphasizing cautious holding, profit-taking on rallies, and risk control. Additionally, the Chen Ge contract team emphasizes: "Every strategy I give, if no limit order is specified, is executed at market price... a fluctuation within 100 points is normal for direct entry..." Short-term trading is mainly at market price, with a focus on dynamic risk management and setting stop-loss and take-profit levels. The "Da Piaoliang member group" states: "BTC is okay, can continue to hold lightly," suggesting a cautious stance with some low-position holding. All analyst advice lacks strong recommendations for aggressive re-accumulation or heavy long positions, indicating a general lack of confidence in a short-term rebound, favoring risk management and profit preservation. Their views align with recent market behavior, where rebounds are limited by previous highs, with frequent tests of lower levels. The setting of take-profit and stop-loss points matches recent volatility ranges, supporting the analysis and market trend.

5. Future Outlook and Trading Suggestions
Based on candlestick patterns and volume performance, BTC is unlikely to see a strong reversal in the short term, with expectations of continued range-bound oscillation over the next few days. If the price remains near the lower boundary of 87,500-88,000 with declining volume, the probability of testing support at 86,420 increases. A break below 86,420 could lead to a secondary decline, with further attention to around 85,100. On the upside, rebounds depend on resistance in the 87,800-88,000 zone; failure to break and stabilize above this range will limit rebound heights, making it difficult to see above 89,000 in the short term. A volume breakout above 88,000-88,940 could signal a technical rebound, but volume must follow through. Practical trading advice: short-term traders should strictly set stop-losses, ideally below 86,420. Holders should mainly take profits gradually, avoiding heavy chasing of rallies; partial profit-taking around 87,800-88,000 is recommended. Ultra-short-term traders can trade within recent support and resistance zones, strictly controlling positions. Overall, a defensive approach is advised—reducing positions on rallies and avoiding blind chasing.

6. Risk Warning
BTC is currently in a clear shrinking consolidation pattern, with activity and capacity significantly declining. Candlestick charts show increased amplitude of recent highs and lows, with multiple rebounds and pullbacks, maintained only by local support, lacking momentum for sustained bullish moves. Hot news and whale profit-taking are frequent; under sensitive operations by large holders, panic selling could cause significant price drops. Support levels are at 86,420; if broken, there is a risk of short-term further decline or a stampede. Investors should closely monitor volume and key levels, adjusting positions timely to avoid sharp losses in extreme market conditions. Besides price risks, external policies currently offer no additional support; any sudden external events should raise alertness. The market requires heightened vigilance, with a focus on trend-following, timely profit-taking, and stop-loss measures.