#BTC资金流动性 The current issue is not the price of the coin itself, but rather the next step for the US dollar.

Although the US dollar has weakened somewhat in the short term, it essentially remains at the bottom of the macro range. The question arises—this relative weakness is precisely what has kept various assets, including stocks and precious metals, hot. Investors are hedging against the risk of a falling dollar by using other assets to balance their positions.

But this logic is breaking down. Looking at the trend of EURUSD, on the surface, the euro appears strong, but in reality, it is forming a two-week bearish divergence. This point happens to be a key resistance and also the high point of the macro range. Interestingly, the same pattern appeared in 2021 and 2018, and both times corresponded to significant reversals in the index. The feeling of history repeating itself is not too pleasant—because BTC often doesn't get much support during periods of euro weakness.

The more critical part is still to come. The early signals of this index suggest that such a situation may indeed arise in the next few years. From the response in the Eurozone, the market needs to confirm one question: should we continue to hedge against the depreciation of the dollar? Or is the dollar actually starting to appreciate? The answer to this question determines the logic of the entire asset allocation.

To put it bluntly, it is a game of monetary policy. The attitudes of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve next year will directly affect the ranking of the strength of fiat currencies. Whichever turns more hawkish, its currency will be more favored. The essence of this market trend is waiting for signals from the central banks.