US Hog Futures Rally Amid Mixed Market Signals

Lean hog futures demonstrated notable strength on Monday, gaining 40 cents to settle around $1.50 across most front-month contracts. However, market participation declined with open interest dropping 2,311 contracts, concentrated mainly in December positions (-3,360).

The trading action reveals an interesting disconnect: while prices advanced, market participants reduced their exposure. This pullback in open interest suggests traders may be taking profits ahead of USDA reports and monitoring supply dynamics.

USDA Data Points to Firm Pricing Pressure

The national base hog price remained unreported Monday afternoon, though the 5-day rolling average held steady at $74.08. More telling was the CME Lean Hog Index, which retreated 90 cents from the prior session to $84.81 on November 19. This decline in the index even as futures climbed creates a puzzle worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, USDA’s pork carcass cutout value pushed higher again, rising 35 cents to $93.78 per cwt. The primals market showed selective weakness—only the butt and ham cuts posted lower values, indicating targeted weakness rather than broad-based selling pressure across the pork complex.

Slaughter Volume Supports Neutral Outlook

USDA estimated federally inspected hog slaughter at 495,000 head on Monday, representing a 1,000-head increase compared to the prior week and 2,528 head above the comparable week last year. This supply reality—modest year-over-year growth—provides backdrop for Tuesday’s trading session.

Futures Settlement Overview

December 2025 hog contracts closed at $78.200 (up $0.400), February 2026 settled at $79.175 (up $1.475), and April 2026 ended at $82.525 (up $1.225). The strengthening across the curve suggests market participants view the seasonal supply-demand balance favorably moving forward.