Rare Earth Rally: Which Producer Will Lead the Next Wave?

The rare earth market is heating up as production titans race to meet surging global demand. MP Materials has captured investor attention with a stellar performance, while peers like Lynas Rare Earth and Energy Fuels are making strategic moves to expand capacity and diversify product portfolios.

Production Explosion at MP Materials

MP Materials’ momentum in neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) output has been nothing short of impressive. The company churned out 721 metric tons of NdPr in Q3 2025—a stunning 51% year-over-year jump that crushed its previous record of 597 MT set just one quarter prior. Through the first nine months of 2025, MP has delivered 1,881 MT of NdPr, representing a remarkable 114% increase versus the same period last year. This output has already eclipsed the company’s entire 2024 NdPr production of 1,294 MT, signaling how aggressively the ramp-up continues since commercial operations kicked off in late 2023.

On the Rare Earth Oxide (REO) front, MP logged 13,254 MT in Q3—a 4% dip year-over-year but still marking the second-strongest quarter in company history. The Materials segment, which drives revenues through rare earth concentrate and NdPr oxide/metal sales primarily across Asia (Japan, South Korea, and beyond), is gradually shifting its revenue mix as separated rare earth products scale.

Competitive Landscape Heating Up

Lynas Rare Earth isn’t sitting idle. The company posted 2,003 tons of NdPr production in the same quarter, with total REO output reaching 3,993 tons. More significantly, Lynas has begun shipping separated Heavy Rare Earth oxides—including dysprosium and terbium—to its first customers at premium pricing, capitalizing on the strategic scarcity of these materials.

Energy Fuels has taken a different path, building separated NdPr capabilities from the ground up at its White Mesa Mill in Utah since 2024. The company achieved pilot-scale production of on-spec dysprosium oxide in July 2025 and plans to produce terbium oxide and samarium oxide at pilot scale through early 2026. Commercial-scale output of both dysprosium and terbium is targeted for Q4 2026.

Market Valuation: Premium or Justified?

MP Materials’ stock has surged 275% year-to-date, dramatically outpacing the broader industry’s 20.5% gain. However, the valuation math is complex. Trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 22.45X versus the industry average of 1.42X, MP commands a substantial premium.

Earnings estimates suggest a 2025 loss of $0.20 per share, with a projected turnaround to $0.84 profit per share in 2026. While recent estimate revisions favor 2025 numbers, 2026 expectations have moderated slightly. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, reflecting the market’s cautious optimism amid strong operational growth.

The Broader Picture

As rare earth demand accelerates globally—driven by defense, renewable energy, and technology sectors—the race to secure production capacity and diversify separated rare earth products is intensifying. MP Materials has seized the momentum, but whether the stock’s current valuation premium can be sustained hinges on execution in 2026 and beyond. The next chapter will likely be written by whichever producer can scale separated rare earth output most efficiently while maintaining pricing power.