#比特币价格目标 I see this "activity" indicator is rising again. To be honest, it reminds me of many familiar signals from that round in 2017—back then, there were also quite a few on-chain indicators flashing green, but the price didn't catch up for a long time, leaving many people anxious and staying up late.

But this time it feels different. After reviewing so many years of data, the activity metric indeed has its reference value—it reflects real on-chain transactions and holding behaviors, unlike prices which can easily be swayed by emotions and liquidity. When spot demand is supporting while prices have not yet reacted, it often indicates that market participants are silently accumulating, waiting for that critical point.

I experienced a similar rhythm from 2020 to 2021. At that time, the price also seemed to stagnate, but the on-chain data was quietly telling another story - large transfers increased, address activity rose, and long-term holders were accumulating. A few months later, the price surge was like a sudden awakening.

However, what I want to say is that this indicator is just one piece of the puzzle. An increase in activity does not necessarily mean that the price will rise; it simply indicates what is happening on the supply and demand sides. A real bull market requires multiple confirmations—macroeconomic environment, policy expectations, and the breadth of institutional participation, all of which are essential.

At this moment, looking at this signal, my feeling is: the market bottom may be more solid than the price indicates. It is worth waiting patiently.