#比特币价格波动 The big dump in mid-October was actually a complete reshuffling of the market cost structure.

According to the on-chain data released by Murphy, long-term holders are engaging in an unprecedented level of distribution. Particularly in the cost range of 60,000 to 70,000, the selling pressure is frightening—those who hoarded chips before the election are now seeing profit pullbacks, and even the most confident individuals are starting to reduce their positions. This is not called adjusting positions; this is called a collapse of consensus.

What’s even more distressing is the price range of 70,000 to 80,000, which now feels like a vacuum zone. Only 190,000 BTC are stuck there. Imagine: if the price really drops to this point, there’s essentially nothing in the market to stop it. It could either plunge straight down or it would need new buying pressure to support a rebound. But who would dare to take over now? Those in profit are frantically unloading, while those in loss are holding on tightly. What about the group whose cost is between 100,000 and 110,000? They’re completely unmoved. What are they betting on? Most likely waiting for an even more severe drop.

To speak frankly: the essence of this fall is not just an ordinary correction. Long-term holders are fleeing on a large scale, reflecting a deep unease about the macro situation—threats from quantum technology, policy uncertainties, and liquidity drying up... These underlying worries are eroding people's confidence in their holdings. On the surface, the distribution of chips appears balanced, but there are undercurrents beneath. Once all long-term holders have exited and the cost structure has completely shifted upward, if it breaks below 80,000, this strong support level, panic will not merely be an emotional issue, but will evolve into a chain sale of chips.

How to deal with this? Don't expect any bottom-fishing myths anymore, just honestly watch how the chips are flowing. Let's see if 70,000 to 80,000 can hold; the key is whether real money is coming in to take over. If it can't quickly stop the fall, it indicates that the bottom hasn't been reached yet, and the cost reconstruction is far from over. If things go poorly, the subsequent liquidity crisis could be even more terrifying. A bull market needs new consensus to support it, and the current problem is that the old consensus is rapidly collapsing.

The last sentence is for you: what’s truly terrifying is not the price falling down, but that you have no idea who else is willing to stubbornly hold on with you.