#以太坊行情解读 $ETH

Those who missed this surge in Ethereum will regret it to death tonight.

This morning I mentioned "entering with half position for a breakout" in the group, and was mocked for being too aggressive. Now looking at the 1-hour chart, the big bullish candle that jumped directly from 2943 to 3060 is indeed impressive. However, don’t just focus on the K-line chart for pleasure; you need to understand the logic behind it.

**How to view the technical side:** The 1-hour level has directly broken through the upper Bollinger Band, and the MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero line with volume increasing to more than three times that of the previous consolidation period. This is not a result of retail investor emotional hype; it is a clear signal of real capital entering the market.

**On-chain data speaks louder:** In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of over 12,000 ETH from exchanges, indicating that large holders are withdrawing and hoarding. The proportion of addresses holding over 1,000 ETH has increased by 0.8%, and exchange balances have reached a three-month low—it's clear that institutions have no intention of crashing the market.

**The macroeconomic support is also in place:** The Federal Reserve signaled yesterday that it might lower interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, leading to a softening of the dollar index and an overall increase in the risk appetite for risk assets. The amount staked in Ethereum has exceeded 30 million coins, with an annualized return stabilizing at 4.2%, which is attractive enough to draw institutional-level allocation demand. With both the fundamentals and the liquidity ramping up, the momentum is indeed different.

**How to operate in practice:** A pullback to the range of 3020-3030 is an opportunity to add positions, with the initial target set at 3080-3100. For risk control, if it breaks the BOLL middle track ( around 2990), exit immediately. The market is still in rhythm; those who want to follow can place orders to enter.