#比特币市场周期与价格 Wow, BTC's performance this November is really pumping down, the weakest since 2018, with Europe crazy dumping 20-25%🔴 while we in Asia and the US are surprisingly still flat, this difference is unreal.

What's even more extreme is that retail buying has plummeted to rock bottom, with sentiment returning to bear market levels. The open interest in perpetual contracts has directly collapsed by 40-50% from the peak in October, meaning a large number of speculators can no longer participate. 💀 Gold and silver are still diverting attention, and even ETF inflows have slowed down.

But this is the most interesting part - the supply side is quietly tightening! In the past two weeks, 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and ETF and corporate holdings have surpassed exchange balances for the first time, indicating that long-term capital is quietly accumulating while retail investors are exiting. As year-end liquidity reaches a bottom, any slight movement could trigger a major market event.

The key is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday; a 25bp rate cut should be implemented, but the guidance on the balance sheet is the real game-changer that will determine the direction at the end of the year. Right now, BTC is fluctuating between $84,000 and $100,000, and market depth is getting worse by the day. It feels like a big show is about to begin 🎬.

Those who hold on are believers; next, let's see who can survive until dawn.