Santiment Says Bitcoin Has Not Yet Hit Bottom Despite Signs of Concern

According to the founder of the market sentiment analysis platform Santiment – Maxim Balashevich, the current crypto market has not yet shown a sufficient level of fear on social media to confirm a true bottom. He believes that Bitcoin still has the potential to continue adjusting, even falling to the zone of $75,000 before forming a sustainable bottom. The Crowd Psychology Is Still Too Optimistic Balashevich emphasizes that in previous cycles, market bottoms typically only occur when the crowd is completely despondent, confidence is shattered, and hopes for recovery are nearly nonexistent. However, he still observes excessive optimism on social media and among retail investor communities, with the belief that the downtrend will soon come to an end. According to him, comments like “the bear is trapped,” or the expectation that the market will continue to rise right after negative macro news, are not signs of a true market bottom. If Bitcoin falls from the current price level of around $88,350 to $75,000, this corresponds to a correction of about 14.77%. Nevertheless, Balashevich believes that this could become a very good trading opportunity for patient traders with a clear strategy. The Bank of Japan and Macro Pressure A notable macro factor is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. Historically, BOJ's monetary policy tightening phases have been associated with significant adjustments of Bitcoin, reaching up to 20% at times. However, Balashevich believes that it is precisely such deep falls that often create the conditions for the formation of a true bottom, rather than shallow corrections when market sentiment still holds expectations of rising prices. Is the Market Indicator Contradictory? Interestingly, many sentiment indicators are contradicting Balashevich's cautious view. Specifically: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in the Extreme Fear zone since December 14, with a score of 20 points on Sunday – reflecting a high level of market concern. The Altcoin Season Index indicates a Bitcoin Season state, with a score of 17/100, implying that money is flowing out of altcoins and returning to Bitcoin – a typical defensive sign. However, according to Balashevich, these quantitative indicators do not fully reflect the true emotions of the crowd, especially on social media, where he still sees bullish expectations prevailing. Counter Perspective From Major Organizations From a long-term perspective, Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Research Director at Fidelity, believes that Bitcoin may “rest” in 2026, with the possibility of falling to around $65,000. Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, believes that 2026 will continue to be a positive year for Bitcoin. This difference indicates that the market is still in a state of disagreement, a characteristic that often appears before major fluctuations. Conclusion Maxim Balashevich's analysis shows a key point: the market bottom is not only determined by price but also by sentiment. When the crowd is still hopeful and optimistic, the likelihood of another deep drop to “shake off” the sentiment is entirely possible. If Bitcoin really adjusts to the zone $75,000, it may not be a disaster, but a necessary step for the market to reach true capitulation, thereby paving the way for a stronger platform for the next growth cycle.