Learn from history, where is Bitcoin positioned in the cycle now?

Let's mainly talk about Bitcoin today. I hold a certain percentage of stocks related to Bitcoin. What is the current price level, and what is expected to be the trend in the next year? We need to analyze this.
1. The cyclicality of Bitcoin is very obvious; based on the past few occurrences, it is basically a 4-year cycle, which is very stable! As for the reasons for the cycle, there are various opinions, but the core influencing factor lies in the Bitcoin halving event. The Bitcoin halving is a preset, automatically triggered event in the Bitcoin network, and its core mechanism aims to control the issuance rate of Bitcoin, ensuring that its total supply remains constant at 21 million coins, thus building its scarcity value foundation.
The event is driven by the halving of the block reward for miners mining new Bitcoin approximately every 210,000 blocks (about every four years).
Each occurrence of halving represents a reduction in earnings achieved by miners for the same amount of investment. Some unprofitable miners will exit, which will delay the production of Bitcoin.
It can be understood that as the cost of gold mining increases and the amount of gold available for trading in the market decreases, the price goes up.
Therefore, shortly after the halving occurs, the price of Bitcoin is expected to experience a surge. Once the price rises to a level where it is still profitable even with the halved mining rewards, more people will participate in mining, leading to an increase in supply, and thereafter the price will fluctuate.
Of course, since the production of Bitcoin is virtual and does not correspond to the physical world, its fluctuations and cycles do not completely follow the balance of supply and demand.
There are also factors such as liquidity, social consensus, speculative frenzy, market sentiment, and so on.
But the final outcome shows that, starting from the halving cycle, the price peaks after 12-18 months, then begins to adjust; it takes another 12-18 months for the price to hit the bottom, and then it starts to rebound, continuing until the beginning of the new halving.
2. Price fluctuations during the period
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. Now let's take a look at what position we are in within the cycle.
The table above summarizes the recent price trends of Bitcoin over the last four cycles, and it can be seen that:
The price reaches its peak 12-18 months after the halving, with the peak price increasing at least twice compared to the price at the time of the halving.
The pullback after the peak is astonishing, reaching up to 80%.
It generally takes 13 months from the high point to the cyclical rebound low point.
Let's take another look at the performance of this cycle:
1) The 18th month after the halving in April 2024 (October 2025) saw a peak, with Bitcoin approaching $130,000;
2) After reaching a high point, it retraced to a low of 80,000 dollars, a retracement of 36%;
Low point lasted only 1 month
Based on the trends of previous cycles, the current $80,000 does not seem to be a true low point, as the retracement is only 36%, far from the scale of retracements seen in earlier cycles.
In addition, the cycle is too short, or even if 80,000 dollars is the low point, it is not yet the turning point for the price rebound of Bitcoin; the market at least needs to stabilize and recover over a period of at least 6-12 months.
Of course, due to the significant improvements in Bitcoin-related policies and the social environment over the past two years, many voices are expressing that this time might be different. If it is indeed different, what kind of market trends can we expect next?
3. Future Price Trends and Investment Strategies We will derive from three perspectives: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic.
Pessimistic: The non-price bottom is 80,000, and the decline should be at least close to 60%-70%, which means the price will drop below 50,000 dollars; moreover, in terms of time, it will take until the second half of 2026 to stabilize and start to recover.
Mid-term view: 80,000 is the price bottom, but the price will fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 until the second half of 2026 when it starts to enter an upward channel.
Optimistic: 80,000 is the price bottom, and the pullback period has significantly shortened, with an increase expected to start in the first half of 2026.
Different people have different judgments on which of the three they are more inclined to. Since the future is unpredictable, we can only adjust our positions based on the risks and returns we can accept in the different situations of the three.
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