2025/12/22 $BTC High-level fluctuations after a short-term rebound at the 4-hour level, but overall still in the adjustment phase of the downtrend.

1. Price and Moving Average Analysis (EMA):
Price and EMA Relation: The current price (around 88,400) has been consistently running above the fast line EMA (12) and the slow line EMA (26) in recent cycles. This is a short-term bullish signal. The fast line (ema_fast) has crossed above the slow line (ema_slow), forming a "golden cross" (from the data, the golden cross occurred around line 188-189).
Slope of the moving average: However, the slopes of the two EMA moving averages (fast line around 88257, slow line around 88044) remain relatively gentle and have not formed a strong upward angle. This indicates that the upward momentum is not very strong, more like a technical rebound after an oversold condition.
2. Momentum Indicator Analysis (MACD):
MACD Histogram: This is the most positive signal. The MACD Histogram has been positive for several consecutive periods, and the values are gradually increasing (from 57.87 to 89.90), indicating that the bullish momentum is strengthening.
DIF and DEA lines: The DIF line (fast line) has crossed above the DEA line (slow line) and continues to run above it, both are below the zero axis but are moving upwards. This confirms the exhaustion of short-term downward momentum and the establishment of upward momentum. However, to confirm a reversal of the larger trend, it is necessary to observe whether the DIF and DEA can effectively break through the zero axis.
3. Overbought and Oversold Indicator Analysis (RSI & StochRSI):
RSI: The current RSI value is approximately 53-56, which is in the neutral to strong range, neither overbought (>70) nor oversold (<30). This leaves room for further price increases, but also indicates that market sentiment is not extremely optimistic.
StochRSI: The K value of StochRSI (around 54-69) and the D value (around 56-60) are also in a neutral zone, confirming each other with RSI. There are no extreme overbought signals, indicating that the short-term pullback pressure is not significant.
4. Volume and Price Action Analysis:
Key K-line: Observing the data, it can be found that line 178 (December 18, 12:00) is a large bullish candle with a huge volume (646.7 billion), pulling the price up from 87300 to 88513. This can be seen as the starting signal for this round of rebound and a key support area.
Recent volume and price: The subsequent rise (as seen in lines 182 and 184) was also accompanied by increased volume, indicating continuous capital involvement. However, in the recent few cycles (lines 196-199), trading volume has shrunk, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range at a high level, showing that both bulls and bears are in a temporary balance at the current position, with the market waiting for a new directional choice.
Overall conclusion:
Current status: The market is in a high-level consolidation phase after a short-term rebound. Technical indicators (MACD golden cross, price above EMA, RSI neutral) support a short-term bullish bias.
Background of the Major Trend: It is important to be cautious, as this rebound occurs after a significant fall (from 90240 on December 14 to 85875 on December 16). Therefore, from a larger cycle perspective, this is more likely a rebound correction within a downward trend, rather than a confirmation of a trend reversal. The price still has not effectively broken through the previous key resistance area.
Key Level Analysis:
Key resistance level above:
1. 89,500 90,000 range: This is the recent rebound high point area (Line 196 reached 88920, Line 199 high point 89627). If we can break through this area with increased volume, it will open up space to test 90,300 90,800 (the lower boundary of the consolidation range on December 13-14 and the pressure of the EMA slow line).
2. 91,000 92,000 area: This is the starting point of the previous fall and an important psychological level, serving as the strong boundary line that determines whether the rebound can evolve into a reversal.
Key support level below:
1. 87,200 to 87,500 area: This is the lower boundary of the recent fluctuation range, the current position of the fast line EMA (12), and also the midpoint of the large bullish candle on line 178. This is the strongest support recently, and if it falls below this level, the short-term rebound structure may be disrupted.
2. Area of 86,000 to 86,500: This is the low point area tested multiple times in the early stages (lines 161 and 165), serving as the last line of defense for the bulls. If this area is lost, it means the rebound has ended, and the price will restart the falling trend, testing levels of 85,000 or even lower again.
Summary of suggestions:
It is not advisable to chase high prices at the moment. Consider looking for buying opportunities near the support area of 87,500-88,000, with 87,200 as a short-term stop-loss reference. When moving upwards, closely monitor the breakthrough situation of the resistance zone at 89,500-90,000. If it cannot break through with volume, it may form a double top or head and shoulders pattern, and at that time, consider reducing positions or exiting the market. The market is at a critical point of choosing a direction, and the next volume breakthrough will determine the short-term trend.
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