Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a new high in the first half of 2026, marking the end of a four-year cycle.

Source: Yellow Original Title: Grayscale predicts a new all-time high for Bitcoin in the first half of 2026 at the close of the four-year cycle

Original Link: Asset management company Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach new historical highs in the first half of 2026, marking the end of the traditional four-year market cycle for cryptocurrencies.

The report “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: The Dawn of the Institutional Era” released by the company points out two structural drivers that are changing the digital asset market.

This 32-page analysis forecasts that as macro demand and regulatory clarity improve, the valuations of various sectors in cryptocurrency will continuously rise, thereby accelerating institutional adoption.

Grayscale believes that the inflow of institutional capital fundamentally changes the price dynamics compared to previous cycles.

What happened

Grayscale expects that the macro demand for alternative value storage will drive the continued adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) as the risks of fiat currency continue to increase.

The report points out that the levels of U.S. debt and inflation concerns are catalysts driving investors towards scarce digital assets with fixed supply plans.

The regulatory progress represents the second pillar supporting the institutional argument.

Grayscale expects Congress to approve bipartisan legislation on the structure of the cryptocurrency market in 2026.

Since the launch of Bitcoin products in the US in January 2024, global cryptocurrency ETPs have attracted a net inflow of $87 billion.

Despite this progress, less than 0.5% of U.S. managed assets are currently allocated to digital assets.

The company has identified 10 investment themes for 2026, covering stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi lending, AI integration, and next-generation blockchain infrastructure.

The 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026, further reinforcing the asset's transparent scarcity model.

Why it matters

The report questions the traditional view that the cryptocurrency market follows a predictable four-year cycle related to Bitcoin halving events.

Recently, the increase in Bitcoin shows an annual highest increase of about 240%, reflecting a more stable accumulation by institutions rather than peaks driven by retail investors.

Grayscale explicitly excluded two highly controversial concerns, believing that they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market in 2026.

According to the analysis, quantum computing does not pose a significant threat to blockchain security or valuation in the short term.

The asset pool holding billions of dollars in cryptocurrency is also considered unlikely to have a relevant impact on next year's supply and demand dynamics.

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue lowering rates in 2026, creating favorable macro conditions for risk assets.