#美联储政策 The data from Polymarket is quite interesting—the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in December is as high as 93%, and the market has already locked this in. But looking at the data for January, the probability of a rate cut has instead fallen to 27%. What does this reflect?

In fact, this is a true reflection of traditional financial markets: centralized decision-making power is held by a few institutions, and the market can only speculate and price based on fragmented information. The existence of prediction markets like Polymarket precisely highlights the problem - we need a more transparent and democratic decision-making mechanism.

JPMorgan said that the interest rate cut expectations have been fully priced in, and the US stock market may face profit taking. From another perspective, this type of market volatility driven by macro policies can be greatly mitigated in the decentralized finance ecosystem of Web3. On-chain DeFi protocols execute automatically through smart contracts, without relying on a central bank's resolution, and participants can gain real voice through DAO governance.

The financial system of the future should be like this: no longer passively waiting for policies, but achieving more efficient resource allocation through transparent mechanisms and widespread participation. Now is the best time to understand and embrace this change.