Recently, there has been a voice within the Fed that has drawn attention. An official stated that after three consecutive months of interest rate cuts, she tends to hold steady, at least until spring.

The core reasoning sounds very pragmatic: rather than worrying about a decline in employment, it is better to prevent inflation from remaining high. In other words, she feels that the risk of continuing to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy now is greater than the risk of stabilizing employment.

Her criteria for judgment are also very clear - unless she sees inflation really returning to the target range, or the job market shows more severe signs of decline, the interest rate policy will remain unchanged for the time being.

Here is an important detail: she does not have voting rights this year, but she will obtain them next year. This means that her current attitude is likely to evolve into a voice in the decision-making body in the future.

In simple terms, if this logic prevails, the Fed has tightened the "floodgates" of liquidity. This has a significant impact on crypto assets — short-term liquidity is unlikely to be suddenly loosened, and speculative enthusiasm is also hard to ignite quickly. Non-USD assets like BTC are naturally under pressure in the face of a strong dollar.

On the other hand, if inflation continues unabated, some funds will still seek anti-inflation targets. The premise is that the Fed does not immediately adopt a dovish stance.

The official's stance can be described as "owl-like": neither raising interest rates in a frantic manner nor casually injecting liquidity, but rather fixating on inflation data and preferring to stay put. If this mindset prevails, interest rates are likely to consolidate sideways in the coming months, with the market less stimulated by the narrative of an "unexpected rate cut"; fluctuations will depend more on its own rhythm and unforeseen events.