The fall from last night seemed abrupt, but in fact, it was traceable.

$BTC fell in the early morning, $ETH and $SOL followed the fall, and a bunch of traders in the back office were confused: "What exactly happened?"

In fact, there is logic behind this 'mysterious fall'. The problem is that most people only focus on the candlestick charts and ignore the real driving force - the flow of funds.

**Market fluctuations do not happen without reason**

Every abnormal fluctuation in the market essentially stems from a disturbance in liquidity. This time, the trigger point came from the US bond market.

US Treasuries are like a giant money-sucking machine. Right now, the US government is on the brink of a shutdown, and the Treasury's TGA account is about to run dry. The market is already short on cash, and on top of that, there is a $163 billion US Treasury auction. The result? Funds are flowing massively from risk assets to the bond market, causing the crypto market to suffer directly.

What you see is the price of the coin falling, but what is actually falling is the liquidity of the market. This is not a black swan event, but a normal response of the system to liquidity tightness.

**Macro cold wind blows in**

The Federal Reserve hasn't been idle either. Once the hawkish remarks from officials came out, the market's expectations for a rate cut in December immediately cooled. The risk capital that was originally betting on 'liquidity recovery' instantly lost direction. Those who should run have run, and those who should cut have cut, with Bitcoin being the first to suffer.

**But this is not the end**

Liquidity is like the tide — the more violently it recedes, the more fiercely it returns. Once the government operations resume, TGA is replenished, and reverse repo policies are relaxed, the funds that have been withdrawn will eventually flow back.

The cycle of the trading market is like this: every round of panic, cutting losses, and blaming the market makers essentially repeats the same mistake—focusing only on price, not on logic. The real trading logic comes from understanding the liquidity cycle and the rhythm of macro policies, rather than short-term emotional fluctuations.