From retail investors exiting to institutions building positions: the turnover of the crypto market will be completed in 2025, who will dominate in 2026?

[Coin World] The year 2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market, but also the dawn of the institutional era.

This is not just a fluctuation in price, but a fundamental shift in market structure. Most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle, but the data has already spoken: institutional holdings have reached 24%, retail investors have exited 66%, and the crypto market has undergone a complete turnover.

BTC fell 5.4% in 2025, looking bleak. But a key detail has been overlooked - it once reached a historic high of $126,080 during that period. ETF inflows reached $25 billion. Market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions. Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying. This is the most accurate picture of the current situation.

Institutions continue to build positions at what is referred to as the “high point” because they are not looking at the price, but rather at the cycle. What are they doing? Long-term allocation. This is not the “bull market top,” but rather the “institutional accumulation period.”

Key Variables of 2026

There will be a mid-term election in November 2026. Historical patterns tell us that “policy precedes election years.” Therefore, the investment logic should be understood as follows:

First half of 2026: The policy honeymoon period + dual drive of institutional allocation, the market is worth looking forward to. Short-term expectations fluctuate in the range of $87,000 - $95,000, with a long-term target of $120,000 - $150,000.

Second half of 2026: Political uncertainty increases, leading to greater volatility. Election results and policy continuity become key points of focus.

Of course, risks still exist - a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, and long-term holders may still sell. But the other side of risk is opportunity. When everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.

The surface is the worst, but the reality is the strongest

2025 is ostensibly the worst year for encryption. But from another perspective: this is the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive improvement of infrastructure. Prices have dropped by 5%, but underlying construction is accelerating. ETF investors have shown strong HODL resilience.

When the market structure undergoes a fundamental change, the old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt. This is not the peak of the cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. Key points to watch in 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lays the foundation for the next round of price increases.