Briefly

The future of Bitcoin depends on regulatory changes, actions of major holders (whales), and macroeconomic factors.

Changes in policy – following the departure of Senator Lummis, U.S. legislation on cryptocurrencies is in uncertainty (negative factor).
Whale purchases – in the last 30 days, large players added 269 thousand BTC – the highest since 2012 (positive factor).
Macroeconomic liquidity – Fed decisions and inflation data (25 August) may influence risk appetite (mixed effect).

Details

1. Regulatory vacuum after Lammis (negative effect)

Overview: Senator Cynthia Lummis, the author of key cryptocurrency legislation including the Bitcoin Reserve Strategy Act, has announced that she will not seek reelection. Her departure may slow the passage of important laws, complicating institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Bills like the CLARITY Act are now in question without her support.

What does this mean: Reduced regulatory activity may slow down the integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial systems. For example, the GENIUS Act, promoted by Lummis, was supposed to legalize stablecoins — an important tool for attracting funds from traditional finance. Delays may cement Bitcoin's status as a "risky asset," limiting growth in the near term.

2. Whale purchases against ETF outflows (positive/mixed effect)

Overview: Large holders purchased 269,822 BTC ( around $23.3 billion ) in December 2025 — this is the largest accumulation in 13 years (Crypto Aman). At the same time, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $500 million over the last week, while BlackRock IBIT has seen a reduction of 24,000 BTC in reserves since October.

What does this mean: Historically, whale accumulations preceded the price increase (, for example, in 2021 ), but outflows from ETFs indicate a decrease in institutional demand. Such a contradiction creates a risk of volatility: if outflows continue, the accumulated BTC could become selling pressure during periods of liquidity shortages.

3. Macroeconomic Crossroads (mixed effect)

Overview: Bitcoin is facing conflicting macroeconomic signals — the December FOMC meeting may hint at a rate cut in 2026 (positive), but the inflation data for August (25 August) may show its resilience. Open interest in futures reached $103 billion, and the funding rate is +0.12% — a sign of a large number of borrowed long positions.

What it means: Easing of the Fed's policy could revive the image of Bitcoin as "digital gold," but high credit loads increase the risk of sharp sell-offs (long squeeze). The key level is the 365-day moving average ($98 172). To surpass it, either soft inflation data or a resumption of fund inflows into ETFs is needed.

Result

Bitcoin is balancing between positive signals from whales and negative factors in regulation and macroeconomics. It is important to watch for support at the level of $88 000 — a sustained break below it could trigger liquidations and a drop to $75 000 (bearish scenario according to Santiment). At the same time, inflows into ETFs and the easing of Fed policy could lead to a rise to $112 000. The key question is: can whale purchases offset outflows from ETFs amid worsening macro conditions?$BTC