Encryption fund managers discuss strategy differentiation: Why does the same company provide different Bitcoin forecasts?

Question

In the crypto market predictions, the same fund company can provide completely different viewpoints. What is going on?

Fundstrat's chief crypto strategist recently provided an explanation: our company is not a monolith, but rather has multiple analysts conducting independent research tailored to different types of investors. Some specialize in trading cryptocurrencies, while others focus on stable allocations, and the timelines vary, so the viewpoints will naturally differ.

To break it down: large institutional investors and those who allocate 1%-5% of their assets to Bitcoin and Ethereum need long-term discipline and a big-picture perspective — this is to achieve excess returns over a multi-year horizon. In contrast, for portfolios where crypto assets account for 20% or even more, the strategy must be slightly more aggressive. These types of clients need to proactively rebalance in order to outperform the index across different market cycles.

How great is the market risk? From the perspective of this analyst, there are indeed several hidden dangers: government shutdowns, trade frictions, uncertainties in AI hardware investments, along with changes in the Federal Reserve leadership. In addition, the interest spread of high-yield bonds is tightening, cross-asset volatility is at historically low levels, and capital flows are starting to diverge. The current valuation level of Bitcoin has reached the “uninhabited zone,” with little historical reference.

In the long term, once traditional large brokerages join in promoting ETFs, the demand will improve. However, there is indeed significant pressure in the short term—early holders may cash out, miners need cash flow, large-cap stocks may be excluded, and fund redemptions, etc.

So how to operate? This analyst's baseline expectation is: there may be a rebound opportunity at the beginning of the year, and a further pullback in the first half of the year will provide a cheaper entry point. If the forecast deviates, he is more willing to wait for market confirmation signals. Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to reach new highs before the end of the year, emerging from a relatively short and mild bear market cycle, thereby rewriting the traditional four-year market cycle.

It is worth mentioning that two analysts from the same fund have given significantly different price targets: one believes Bitcoin may surge to new highs, while the other predicts that Bitcoin may correct to $60,000-$65,000 in the first half of 2026, and Ethereum may drop to $1,800-$2,000. This divergence essentially reflects rational analyses under different investment strategies and time frames, rather than contradictions.

MevSandwich · Accepted Answer

It sounds like custom solutions for different clients, just nice talk.

To put it bluntly, it’s still just an excuse to play people for suckers, haha.

What’s going on? It’s just each saying their own thing.

A 1%-5% allocation and a 20% allocation, the difference is too big, no wonder there’s such a contrast in opinions.

It feels like they just made up some reasons to fool people.

Both long positions and short positions can profit, it just depends on whether the clients buy it or not.

This set of rhetoric has some substance, but I still don’t believe it.

MetaverseLandlady · Answer

In simple terms, it&#39;s just each talking their own way, anyway, you can find a reason no matter how you say it.

OnChainDetective · Answer

lmao fundstrat really out here with the "different analysts, different vibes" excuse... transaction patterns suggest otherwise tho ngl

AirdropF5Bro · Answer

To put it simply, everyone has their own say, and no matter how you put it, there will always be people who believe it, haha.