Federal funding won't last until February. According to the latest news, the U.S. government budget can only sustain until January 30, 2026, and the two parties have become deadlocked in budget negotiations. The risk of another government shutdown is rising within the next month.

To be honest, the timing is quite awkward. The U.S. economy is already showing signs of fatigue—slowing growth, high prices, and an increasing number of unemployed people have created a combination of stagflation. Historically, every shutdown has led to tens of billions in economic losses, and a complete paralysis of the system is not uncommon. In the current fragile economic environment, if we experience this again, the impact can only be imagined.

How will the market react? Firstly, the fluctuations in the US stock market and US bonds will definitely increase, leading to a decrease in global investors' risk appetite. Trade approvals may come to a standstill, and the supply chain will face another bottleneck. This is actually interesting for the crypto market— the narrative of Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset" will be activated again. The issue of government shutdown weakening the credibility of the dollar just highlights the alternative value of on-chain assets.

In the short term, market uncertainty will only rise. What we need to do is prepare for volatility, avoid being too aggressive with leverage, and see whether the performance of Bitcoin diverges from traditional assets.