Everyone is still counting down the days of the four-year cycle, hoping that 2025 will be the peak of the celebration. But a heart-wrenching reality is approaching: this clock, engraved on-chain, is about to be crushed by Washington's money-printing machine.

You should feel it - the power of discourse in the market has changed hands. It's no longer the miners and whales who call the shots, but ETFs bringing in a flood of traditional capital. The rhythm of Bitcoin is being dragged down by the pulse of the Federal Reserve. A hidden channel has emerged here: decentralized stablecoins. On-chain dollars like USDD are becoming the most direct conduit between macro policies and the crypto world. Whether the Federal Reserve is loosening or tightening, the first place it reflects on-chain is the change in the supply of these stablecoins.

Looking ahead, retail funds have created the myth of rising from 3000 to 20000, while institutional funds have pinned the price at 70000. But the current target is 120000, or even higher, and it needs to support the entire expansion of altcoins. The market's appetite has changed – it no longer feeds on the dividends of small funds, but is desperately trying to absorb the large pool of global dollar liquidity.

So 2026 seems strange and dangerous. The surface story is good: the Federal Reserve will at least cut interest rates once in the first half of the year, and with the new chairman taking office in the second half, there could be two more cuts. The market habitually does the math, but the real key lies in the details—how quickly the liquidity released by each rate cut flows and where it goes; all of this will be precisely perceived and amplified on-chain. This is the true rule of the game.