"Analyst, why has Bitcoin fallen again? I haven't seen any bad news on my end." Every time the market fluctuates significantly, someone always asks this.

To be honest, the fluctuations in the crypto world often differ from what you might think. Many times, the fundamental factors determining the market direction are not the news within the crypto space, but rather the global macroeconomic policies. This was especially evident in 2025—every move of the central bank can shake the market more than any project financing or token issuance. If you only focus on crypto news and ignore the macro environment, you can easily get trapped.

Recently, there has been a living example. The Bank of Japan made its largest interest rate hike in 30 years, resulting in a large number of yen arbitrage trades being closed, and liquidity was directly pulled out of the cryptocurrency market, leading to a fall in Bitcoin prices. Previously, the Federal Reserve signaled a rate cut, and global risk assets responded by rising, with Bitcoin also bouncing back. What does this indicate? The cryptocurrency market is no longer an independent little world; it is deeply tied to the global economic ecosystem. The data shows that by 2025, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks will reach a historical high; how U.S. stocks perform often dictates the direction of fund flows.

So how to avoid pitfalls? You need to learn to look at the macro economy. First, keep an eye on the actions of the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate decisions and whether it is quantitative easing or tightening, as these directly affect global liquidity with no room for negotiation. Secondly, pay attention to policy changes from major central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan; adjustments in interest rates by various countries will guide where funds flow. Finally, inflation data cannot be ignored—when the U.S. CPI and PPI figures are released, how the central bank will decide next will also change the market's capital allocation. These are the underlying logic that determines the rise and fall of your account.