#减半机制 Having seen Bernstein's report, I must admit that the logic of this analysis makes me a bit wary.

It's not new that Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle pattern, but the problem is that every time institutions start to depict a grand narrative, retail investors are often in the most dangerous position. The report emphasizes that ETF outflows are less than 5%, used to argue that "institutions are bottom fishing while retail investors are in panic." This argument sounds reassuring, but on the flip side, this is exactly the narrative that institutions hope retail investors will accept.

The halving mechanism has indeed changed the supply expectations for Bitcoin, but looking at figures like $200,000 in 2027 and even $1,000,000 in 2033, it seems more like an enticing story rather than a risk assessment. I have experienced too many combinations of "institutional endorsement + long-term goals + extended cycle theory," which are often used to give a shot of reassurance to those buying at high prices.

What we should be wary of is not the decline itself, but when all voices are singing the same tune. Those who truly want to live long should ask themselves: If these goals are really that certain, why are institutions pushing the timeline to as far as 2027 and 2033?

It's wise to be cautious; those who survive the longest in this market are never the ones who believed the stories the earliest.