The latest CME data is here, and it's a bit heartbreaking—the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January has plummeted, with the probability dropping to 22.1%. How sudden is this change? It indicates a shift in market sentiment.

The key turning point appeared in two places. First was the statement from Fed Vice Chairman Williams, who warned that inflation might be underestimated. This statement sounds ordinary, but the implication is very clear: economic data may be more severe than the surface numbers suggest, and high interest rates need to be maintained. When the market heard this, the expectation for interest rate cuts immediately cooled down.

Another aspect is the game between the White House and the Fed. Lowering interest rates is not just an economic issue; it also involves balancing political pressure and central bank independence. This uncertainty makes any predictions seem unreliable.

The current market seems very calm on the surface, but this calmness is dangerous. Both bullish and bearish forces are waiting for two things: what Powell will say tonight and the subsequent inflation and employment data. Once either side gives a clear signal, the market could explode in an instant. This is not calm before the storm; it is the silence before the tempest.

The fluctuation logic of BTC, UNI, and ZEC recently lies here. Those who trade know that the biggest market movements often occur at the moment when market expectations are highly consistent and then completely shattered. The current situation happens to be such a moment.