Bitcoin is Being Pressed Below Important Trend Lines

Currently, Bitcoin is moving in a quite sensitive state as the price is being pressured below key trend lines on both the weekly ( and daily ) timeframes. The inability to decisively break out is causing the market to enter a phase of consolidation, where the probabilities of various scenarios need to be carefully considered. Below is an analysis based on three important trend lines. Chart 1: Long-Term Uptrend on the Weekly Frame Has Been Broken On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has officially broken the long-standing upward trend line. After losing this trendline, the price of BTC has attempted to recover and retest the old trend from below for several consecutive weeks, but has been unable to rise successfully.

According to market logic, a recovery reaction always occurs after breaking a trend, and the recent bounces can still be seen as “technical rebounds”. However, this bounce is clearly weaker than expected. If in the future, the price of BTC can rise to the region of 94,600 USD, touching the old upward trend line at a higher position but continuing to fail, then this could very well be the right time to exit the spot position, especially for those investors who lean towards safety. Chart 2: The Downtrend on the Weekly Frame May Form a Third Touch Point From the opposite perspective, a downtrend line is forming on the weekly chart, and it is highly likely that BTC will create a third touchpoint, thereby confirming the mid-term downtrend structure more clearly.

This touching point is predicted to fall in the area around 90,000 USD. This means that the scenario where BTC cannot reach 98,000 USD is increasingly likely. Even in a weak scenario, the peak of the current rebound may only stop around 94,000 USD, coinciding with the nearest weak rebound level. Chart 3: The Downtrend on the Daily Frame Has Relatively Completed On the daily frame, the downtrend is even more clearly evident, as the descending trendline may have formed enough three touchpoints. This significantly increases the probability that the current bounce is just a weak rebound in a larger downtrend.

The consensus between the weekly chart and the daily chart forces investors to pay special attention to the risk that the market does not have enough strength to create a strong breakout in the short term. Conclusion: 98,000 or 90,000 – Which Scenario Has a Higher Probability? The key question right now is: 👉 Is the probability of BTC rising back to 98,000 USD higher than returning to 90,000 USD? My personal view is that the scenario of rising to 98,000 USD is still slightly more favorable. The reason does not come from simple technical analysis, but arises from the current structure of the Bitcoin market: BTC is no longer a purely spot market; it has become a strong speculative market where derivatives dominate. From retail investors, market makers to exchanges, all are deeply involved in the derivatives market. If the price does not rise to the $98,000 range, a large amount of short positions will be profitable. The money in the market is finite – and allowing that money to be “harvested” too easily by short orders is something that large capital flows find hard to accept. Large organizations: There is complete market data. There is enough strong capital to pull the price. It is entirely possible to push BTC higher to force shorts to cut losses. When short orders are liquidated, they become liquidity fuel, paving the way for a deeper decline afterwards. 👉 Therefore, I still lean towards the possibility that BTC will test the 98,000 USD area before the market provides a clearer direction.