#美联储降息政策 Seeing the probability of Hasset becoming the Fed chairman rise to 86%, I must calmly say: Don't be hijacked by the expectations of the "raging bull."

In recent years of navigating the blockchain, I have seen too many people go all in because of macro positive news, only to be harvested by the big players. Yes, interest rate cuts, the restart of QE, and reduced regulatory uncertainty do indeed constitute long-term benefits for Bitcoin — but the keyword is "long-term".

Hassett's crypto background is there; he holds Coinbase stock and has been an advisor, and I acknowledge this part of the logic. But this is also why the market is now pricing this expectation so wildly. The clearer you see something, the more you need to be wary that it has already been priced in.

My suggestion is: If you really believe in this logic, don't chase the highs. The current price has already reflected expectations of the Fed's dovish stance, and the real opportunity lies in whether there will be a reversal or delay during the implementation of the policy. Is the mid-year the possible catalyst? That also means there is still enough time to wait for a better entry point.

Don't let statements like "the second half of 2026 is crucial" hijack your mindset. History tells me that the most extensive harvesting of leeks occurs when everyone is optimistic. Keep cash reserves and wait for risk adjustments.