Tonight, there is something that has the global financial markets holding their breath – the Bank of Japan is set to announce the most aggressive interest rate hike in 30 years. At this moment, traders are closely watching the Nikkei index and Bitcoin's movement, with screenshots of short orders all over the screens, and the entire market is waiting for a foregone conclusion of "bloodbath": the yen carry trade being liquidated, and global risk assets being dumped.

In this atmosphere of impending storm, a seasoned player I know who has experienced multiple cycles made an interesting move - he exchanged USDT for a certain stablecoin. His explanation was simple: "When the tide really goes out, you don't have to guess which stone will be exposed. What matters is not to get stranded."

The market script seems to be set. Analysts from all sides are playing out the same logic: Japan tightens policy → global liquidity dries up → risk assets plunge. The digital asset market is currently in a deep correction of the bear market's A wave, having fallen from a previous high of 126,000 all the way down to now, with the degree of decline approaching that of the brutal bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

There is a consensus in the market: as long as Bitcoin effectively breaks through the 80,000 USD threshold, the final wave of panic selling will be triggered, and the A wave can truly conclude. The anticipated bottom range is locked in at 70,000 to 75,000 USD. Only after that will the B wave rise, which has participation value.

Every step of this logic is very rigorous, cold and full of data support. However, there is a question worth pondering here: when everyone has seen through the same "obvious" risk, that risk has actually been digested by the market.

True black swans often hide outside of our collective expectations—such as liquidity suddenly evaporating from the market, or a liquidity blockage at a critical moment.