#比特币价格走势 Seeing that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket is only 33%, I actually feel a bit more at ease. This indicates that the market remains rational—at least in terms of predictions, no one is blindly going all-in on one direction.

But have you noticed another set of data? The probability of dropping below $80,000 is 37%, which is higher than the chance of rising to $100,000. This really highlights the issue. When the market is discussing "whether to hit new highs," the downside risk is actually more worth paying attention to.

The losses I've suffered in this circle often came from being blinded by a wave of FOMO, completely ignoring the most basic logic of probability theory. Looking at these kinds of predictions now, I care less about that 33% chance and more about asking myself: if it drops below $80,000, am I psychologically prepared? Is my position reasonable?

I’ve never doubted Bitcoin’s long-term value, but short-term trends are a game of probabilities. Until the odds are definitively tilted, maintaining cautious position management is always more stable than betting on one direction. Living longer gives you the qualification to wait for real opportunities.