#美联储降息政策 The probability of Haskett becoming the new Federal Reserve Chair has soared to 86%. I have to be honest—this policy shift is much more complicated than it appears.

On the surface, aggressive rate cuts, restarting QE, and reducing the obsession with inflation are indeed bullish for risk assets. Bitcoin and growth stocks are all gearing up. But there are pitfalls that seasoned investors need to see clearly.

First, Haskett aims to achieve both a "recessionary rate cut" and "over 3% prosperous growth"—which sounds like digging his own grave. Short-term rate cuts stimulate the economy, no doubt, but once long-term yields surge due to growth expectations and inflation risks, and the bond market "rebels," can asset prices withstand this reversal? When he chairs his first FOMC meeting in June 2026, the voting split is likely to be a narrow 7:5 majority—that's a real erosion of market confidence.

The key is not to be blinded by the narrative that "the bull market is here." The real opportunity window lies in understanding the timeline of this regime change: confirmation of the nomination → Powell's resignation → first FOMC meeting. Each stage elicits different market reactions, and those who are early or chase highs will have completely different outcomes.

Most alert should be this point—the combination of liquidity easing and political maneuvering always accompanies such shifts. Historically, every aggressive rate-cut cycle has been followed by some form of collapse. The current "supply-side disinflation" rhetoric sounds grand, but what if the judgment is wrong?

There may be a rally in the second half of 2026, but for those going all-in now, I can only say: live to see it.