The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third such decision this year. With rates pushed down to the 3.5%-3.75% range, the underlying logic is clear—disastrous non-farm payroll data, with unemployment soaring to 4.4%, has made employment weakness an unavoidable issue.

But the problem is, what’s next? The signals from the dot plot are quite sobering: there might only be one more cut by 2026, which is much more conservative than market expectations. A rate cut again in June? The probability is only 50%. Inside the Federal Reserve, opinions are starting to diverge—some advocate for a continued aggressive 50 basis point cut, while others want to hold back. This disagreement itself indicates a complex situation.

Even more interesting is the crypto side, which is beginning to stir. On-chain activity shows signs of recovery, and new meme coin projects are gathering momentum. The Fed’s bond purchases exceeded expectations, reaching 40 billion, which is a clear easing signal. In an environment with ample liquidity, can capital find opportunities in crypto? That’s a question worth pondering.

The future hinges on two key directions: if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the rate cut cycle could restart; if inflation suddenly rebounds, all expectations will need to be overturned. The next interest rate decision will influence the direction of global assets, and cryptocurrencies are waiting for the wind to come.