Bitcoin and Ethereum: Technical and Fundamental Analysis for November 2025

Welcome to the in-depth analysis of BTC and ETH market dynamics. In this article, we will combine on-chain data, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors to provide a comprehensive view of the opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency landscape. We will first analyze the fundamentals driving the markets, then use chart tools and histograms to outline possible scenarios.

Macroeconomic Factors Moving the Market

Decisions by the Federal Reserve and Global Liquidity

At the end of August 2025, the US Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts for October, a move that traditionally pushes liquidity toward high-risk assets. This scenario naturally benefits Bitcoin and Ethereum, which gain strength from periods of expansive monetary policies. The current situation shows a transitioning market: on one side, global inflationary pressures remain significant (Europe at 2.8%), on the other, expectations of easing monetary conditions fuel hopes for recovery.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Institutional Adoption

Trade negotiations between the US and China in September created relative stability in financial markets. Simultaneously, unconfirmed reports of an Asian nation considering Bitcoin in its strategic reserves have generated positive sentiment. In Europe, a country announced plans to review blockchain regulations for public transactions, signaling increasing institutional acceptance.

On the corporate front, accumulation continues. During the reference period, 19 companies increased their Bitcoin reserves, while data for Ethereum show significant acquisitions by major financial players (with wallets over 700 million dollars).

Technological Innovations and Scalability

Bitcoin benefits from improvements in second-layer protocols like Lightning Network, which reduce fees and speed up transactions. Ethereum has completed testing of the Pectra version, with promising results: transactions up to 30% cheaper. A major DeFi platform has already integrated these improvements, demonstrating rapid adoption.

Bitcoin: Current Technical Scenario

Critical Levels and Supports

Bitcoin’s current price stands at 88,360 dollars (updated data). The key levels to monitor are:

• Main support: 98,000-103,000 dollars (tested multiple times from June to August)
• Next resistance: 117,000-117,387 dollars
• Strong resistance: 130,000 dollars
• Recent all-time high: 126,080 dollars

The current position, about 12,000 dollars below the high, suggests a consolidation phase after the upward pushes of previous months.

Indicators and Histogram Chart

Using simple moving averages (SMA at 20 and 50 days), the overall picture still shows an upward trend, albeit less aggressive: the short-term SMA remains above the long-term, but the gap is narrowing.

The MACD indicator shows a positive histogram, indicating bullish momentum, but the convergence between the MACD line (blue) and the signal line (orange) suggests moderation of the push. A breakdown of this balance downward could signal corrections down to 107,000 dollars.

The RSI oscillates around 45-50, a neutral territory indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This suggests room for bidirectional movements without extremes.

Chart Pattern

The chart highlights an ascending triangle from mid-August, a classic bullish pattern. If Bitcoin breaks above 115,000 dollars, the target is the previous high at 124,000 dollars. Conversely, if it falls below 103,000 dollars, the pattern invalidates and the price could test 98,000 dollars.

Forward Scenario

Constructive case: Break above 115,000 dollars, with a target of 124,000 dollars supported by positive MACD and favorable SMAs.

Defensive case: Break below 103,000 dollars with correction toward 98,000 dollars, especially if RSI drops below 40.

Summary expectation: Consolidation between 107,000 and 113,000 dollars remains the most probable short-term scenario, barring unexpected news shocks.

Ethereum: Fundamental Reading

Institutional Inflows and Accumulation

Ethereum’s price at 2,980 dollars reflects a relatively cautious environment after August highs at 4,950 dollars. However, fundamentals remain solid: spot ETFs approved since July 2024 have recorded cumulative inflows exceeding 8 billion dollars, with 1.5 billion in July 2025 alone.

Major financial institutions continue to accumulate. Reserves holding over 1.87 million ETH (1.5% of total supply) indicate long-term confidence in the blockchain.

Liquidity and Stablecoin Volumes

USDT on the Ethereum network has surpassed 60.3 billion dollars in volume, outperforming competitors like Tron. This indicates deep liquidity and ease of conversion, crucial factors for attracting institutional capital.

Technological Progress

The Pectra upgrade has significantly reduced transaction fees and sped up processing times, encouraging development of new applications. The 15% growth in network users in Q3 2025 demonstrates the positive effect of these innovations.

Ethereum: Technical Dynamics

Supports and Resistances

• Support: 4,200-4,300 dollars (tested at the end of August)
• Resistance: 4,600-4,700 dollars
• Upper target: 4,950 dollars
• Strong resistance: 5,200 dollars

The current position at 2,980 dollars reflects a corrective phase, but support levels remain distant, offering wide movement margins.

Moving Averages Analysis

The (SMA 20 and 50 days) moving averages maintain a bullish orientation, with the short still above the long. The positive crossover in mid-August indicated the start of the trend, but momentum is now moderating.

MACD Indicator and Histogram

MACD shows a positive histogram but in contraction. The convergence between MACD line and the signal suggests decreasing strength. If it falls below the signal, corrections toward 4,300 dollars become likely.

RSI and Territory

RSI oscillates between 48-52, neutral. Falling below 30 will activate support at 4,200; exceeding 70 will test resistance at 4,700.

Chart Pattern

The chart displays a bullish flag from mid-August, aiming for 10-15% movements after breakout. If Ethereum breaks above 4,700 dollars, the target is 4,950. If it drops below 4,300, the pattern invalidates and the price could correct toward 4,000.

Forward Scenarios

Positive scenario: Break above 4,700 dollars toward 4,950, supported by MACD and moving averages.

Cautious scenario: Break below 4,300 dollars with correction down to 4,000, especially if RSI drops below 40.

Immediate trend: Fluctuation between 4,350 and 4,600 dollars in the short term, unless unexpected macroeconomic developments occur.

Conclusions

Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in consolidation phases, supported by solid fundamentals (expansive monetary policies, institutional accumulation, technological innovations) but hindered by profit-taking cycles. Technical indicators show positive momentum but moderating. Focus remains on crucial breakouts: 115,000 dollars for Bitcoin, 4,700 dollars for Ethereum. Monitoring RSI and MACD histogram remains essential for identifying optimal entry and exit points.

Warning: The analyses provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks. Operate consciously and with responsible capital management.