#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 U.S. September employment data just released, with 263,000 new jobs, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. As soon as this data came out, the market immediately formed a new judgment: there are no signs of an economic recession yet, and the Fed may ease the pace of interest rate hikes. The futures market reacted instantly, with U.S. stock index futures rising, the dollar strengthening in the short term, but U.S. Treasury yields actually fell, and gold was hammered down.

In simple terms, strong employment data sent a signal: consumer spending may still have momentum. The probability of pausing rate hikes in September shot up to 90%, which is positive for all risk assets. If the employment market continues to hold up and consumption doesn’t collapse, the story of a soft landing for the economy might really come true.

However, we need to stay cautious, as the sticky inflation problem has not been fully resolved. Although the data looks good, whether the trend can continue remains to be seen by the market.