The recent interest rate hike speech by the Bank of Japan is quite interesting— the governor did not set any specific timeline and repeatedly emphasized "listening to the data" and "gradual approach." The underlying logic is actually very realistic: 30 years of ultra-loose policies have become part of the economic DNA, and suddenly tightening would be suicidal. So rather than calling it a rate hike, it's more like a slow-motion structural adjustment.

Imagine, long-term zero interest rates or even negative interest rates have already changed corporate financing habits and residents' savings behaviors; the entire economy has adapted to the "money is cheap" environment. Now, to gradually normalize interest rates, the central bank's strategy is to repeatedly say "we are not tightening," raising rates while softening the tone, to prepare the market psychologically.

What to watch for? The governor made it clear—core inflation and wage growth. As long as wages continue to rise and inflation remains around 2%, normalization will continue. Conversely, if there are risk signals in the economy, the pace will immediately slow down. This "data-driven" approach provides market participants with a clear expectation framework.

For traders, instead of focusing on when the next meeting will raise rates, it's better to closely monitor inflation data and wage growth. This revolution has no finish line, only a dynamic balance adjusted according to economic fundamentals. Changes in liquidity ultimately depend on what these macro data are telling us.