Zhang Weili's Bold Move: Can Former Strawweight Champ Upset Shevchenko at UFC 322?

Question

The UFC 322 co-main event is shaping up to be a fascinating clash of styles and legacies. Zhang Weili, the 36-year-old ex-strawweight champion, is making her statement jump to the flyweight division to challenge the dominant Valentina Shevchenko for championship gold. But the betting markets are telling an intriguing story about how this fight could unfold.

The Betting Picture: From Underdog to Even Money

When BetOnline first released odds for this bout, Zhang entered as the -140 favorite with her name recognition and pedigree. Shevchenko, despite her dominance at 125 pounds, opened at +120 as the underdog. However, the action has dramatically shifted the narrative. The line has virtually flattened into a pick 'em matchup, with Shevchenko now sitting at -105 while Zhang moved to -115. This convergence signals how genuinely competitive the market sees this championship contest.

The line movement speaks volumes—smart money appears split on whether Zhang’s movement up in weight and wrestling credentials can disrupt Shevchenko’s flyweight kingdom.

Shevchenko’s Empire at Flyweight: The Numbers Speak

Since dropping to 125 pounds, Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1) has constructed an era of dominance. Her resume at flyweight reads like a masterclass: 11 wins in the division, a stunning nine-fight winning streak before her UFC 285 loss to Alexa Grasso, and an impressive 10 title fight victories.

The statistical breakdown reveals why she’s nearly impossible to beat clean:

Only 1.86 strikes absorbed per minute—an elite defensive metric
1,963 total strikes landed showcasing relentless volume
4:07:47 of fight time accumulated in just 11 victories

Her recent trajectory includes recapturing the title via trilogy victory over Grasso at UFC 306, then successfully defending against Manon Fiorot at UFC 315 in May with a commanding unanimous decision. That win marked her first championship defense in her second reign. The blueprint for beating Shevchenko remains largely unsolved.

Zhang’s Leap of Faith: From Strawweight Royalty to Flyweight Challenger

Zhang Weili (26-3) arrives at this moment as a decorated 115-pound veteran. She first seized the strawweight throne in August 2019 with a devastating 42-second TKO over Jessica Andrade, then reigned for three defense wins in her second championship run. Among her victims during that second reign were Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan, victories that punctuated her dominance.

Her path here has included notable setbacks. Rose Namajunas authored a stunning 78-second head kick knockout at UFC 261, and their rematch ended in a split decision defeat. Yet Zhang demonstrated resilience by dismantling Joanna Jedrzejczyk via knockout in June 2022 before reclaiming gold that November with a submission over Carla Esparza.

Moving into 2025, Zhang scored a decision victory over Tatiana Suarez at UFC 312 in February, setting the stage for this title shot. The question now: Can her wrestling and compact striking adapt to the faster pace of flyweight competition?

What’s At Stake

This UFC 322 co-main event represents more than just two fighters colliding. It’s a test of whether elite veteran talent can reposition itself at a new weight class, and whether Shevchenko’s seemingly insurmountable technical advantages can be breached. The betting markets treating this as near-even odds suggests neither fighter should be counted out—a referendum on Zhang’s crossover potential and the possibility that even the best occasionally meets their match.