There is an interesting phenomenon worth noting in the prediction market. A trader created an astonishing 99.6% win rate on Polymarket, sparking heated discussion in the community. Upon examining their trading records, a trick was uncovered — this expert is not necessarily predicting with extraordinary ability, but employing a clever probability arbitrage strategy.

His approach is very clear: focus on high-probability events that are already clearly tilted. When the market predicts a certain outcome with a probability of 95%-99%, most participants stay away, but he takes action. The reason is that, although these events have extremely high probabilities, once they occur, they result in guaranteed profits.

This is not a traditional prediction ability competition, but rather a precise grasp of market liquidity. In high-probability ranges, there are few participants and limited counterparties, but once the event is confirmed, a high win rate naturally follows. This method is a practical arbitrage idea in prediction markets — not betting on black swans, but focusing on market-priced certainties.