Recently, I noticed a phenomenon: the price of USDT dropped from 7.06 to 6.66, a decline of about 5.6%. The difference is roughly 40 cents, but consider this: it used to take just over 140 USDT to exchange for 1,000 RMB, now you need 150 USDT to get back 1,000 RMB. And this is just recent volatility.

What’s even more concerning is the underlying reflection of the US dollar’s depreciation pressure. If this trend continues, people holding dollar assets should be asking themselves some questions. A friend said that instead of watching BTC’s ups and downs, it’s better to pay attention to the dollar’s overall direction—after all, it’s the fundamental pricing basis.

If there’s a significant exchange rate adjustment, everyone will be affected. The actual RMB exchange rate is around 4, which already implies a large variable space. When that happens, even the hedging logic in the crypto market will need to be reconsidered.