Many people ask: Can the inflation and unemployment rate data released by the Federal Reserve really influence the rise and fall of Bitcoin? In fact, these two data points are the "barometers" of the crypto market. Understanding their logic is key to grasping the market rhythm.

Let's start with a basic principle: the core tasks of the Federal Reserve are twofold—controlling inflation and maintaining employment. When inflation data is below market expectations, it indicates that price pressures are easing, and the Fed doesn't need to continue using high interest rates to suppress demand; at the same time, if the unemployment rate begins to rise, signaling a cooling economy, the Fed may need to release liquidity to stimulate growth.

The data combination for November is quite interesting: inflation isn't as fierce, but the unemployment rate is climbing. When these two signals collide, it opens a window for the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market doesn't sit idly by; instead, it reacts immediately based on expectations—that's the key.

From the perspective of capital flow, rate cuts = central bank releases liquidity → more money in the banking system → investors shift funds from low-yield assets to high-risk, high-return assets. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are among the most liquid risk assets, so once the rate cut expectation forms, funds start flowing in. Moreover, the market usually doesn't wait for policies to be officially implemented; it begins to act the moment expectations are established.

My view is that from now until early next year, this period is likely a "window" for rate cut expectations to brew and for market reallocation. If subsequent monthly data confirm rising unemployment and moderate inflation, the possibility of rate cuts will shift from "possible" to "certain," and the crypto market could enter a new upward cycle. Conversely, if the data suddenly strengthen and inflation unexpectedly rebounds, we should decisively reduce positions and switch to a wait-and-see mode.

Analyzing data is essential to understanding the market—that's the fundamental skill of investing.