Bitcoin Stalls Near $112K—What Chain Metrics Tell Us About Support at $107K

The Setup: Why $107K Matters More Than You Think

Bitcoin’s recent rejection at $112K shifted market sentiment decisively downside. With BTC sliding below $110K, on-chain metrics are flashing important clues about where real support sits. The average cost basis for short-term holders (STH) landed around $107.8K—and this level is worth watching closely.

What’s happening under the hood? A spike in Coin Days Destroyed revealed that some long-term holders were taking profits, while whale-driven realized gains of nearly $4 billion signaled institutional caution. Meanwhile, capital rotated from Bitcoin into Ethereum, creating headwinds for spot ETF inflows into BTC.

Reading the Room: MVRV and Risk/Reward Balance

Current on-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. The MVRV Percentile sits at 39%, indicating neutral risk/reward dynamics—a far cry from the elevated danger zones we saw weeks ago. This suggests the market has cooled enough to present both opportunities and risks.

The key insight: Bitcoin trading just above the $107.8K average STH cost basis means we’re sitting at an inflection point. A sustained break below this zone would invalidate bullish setups and could cascade into deeper losses. Conversely, a strong bounce from this support could signal institutional buying interest returning.

Your Trading Playbook: When Metrics Align

Professional traders are using a three-part framework to time entries and exits:

1. Monitor MVRV Valuation Bands Keep tabs on the 365-day moving average within ±1 standard deviation. If MVRV drops below -1.5σ and fails to recover, stay on the sidelines. This warns of potential capitulation extremes.

2. Track STH SOPR Levels The 7-day moving average of Short-term Holder Spent Output Ratio (SOPR) is your reset signal. When it dips below 1, holders are sitting underwater on average. Once STH SOPR climbs back above 1, strength has returned—this is your green light to scout long setups.

3. Watch Realized Price Bands Check 1–3 month and 3–6 month realized prices. Quick rebounds from these bands signal strength, but chasing too aggressively remains dangerous territory.

The Execution: Putting It Together

The winning formula: All three signals align + exchange net outflows spike = higher-probability long setup.

Red flags to watch:

• Bitcoin closing below the STH band for 2–3 consecutive days invalidates longs
• SOPR failing to climb back above 1 keeps the market in reset mode
• Declining exchange outflows suggest weak demand

Next moves: With current data showing BTC at $88.33K and ETH at $2.98K, the macro picture has shifted considerably. An Ethereum-led rally in Q4 remains possible, but Bitcoin must stabilize at support first. Track STH SOPR closely—it’s your most reliable timer for the next entry.

The bottom line: Don’t chase weakness. Wait for confluence, watch your SOPR levels, and let the chain metrics guide your timing.