McDavid's Next Deal: How Salary Cap Growth Could Reshape His Contract Strategy

The Edmonton Oilers organization remains in a holding pattern as training camp approaches within weeks, still awaiting Connor McDavid’s decision on a contract extension. While McDavid became extension-eligible on July 1, he’s strategically taking his time, prioritizing thoroughness over speed in an evolving financial landscape.

The Market Dynamics at Play

The NHL salary cap is projected to spike meaningfully over the next three seasons—a shift that fundamentally alters negotiation calculus for elite performers. McDavid and his agent, Judd Moldaver, are operating under different circumstances than previous extension negotiations. Unlike his rapid five-day decision in 2017 (when he was just 20 years old with limited leverage experience), this time offers room for deliberation.

“I have every intention to win in Edmonton,” McDavid stated at Hockey Canada’s national teams orientation, emphasizing his commitment while simultaneously preserving negotiating flexibility. He’s made clear that his focus extends beyond contract terms—winning a Stanley Cup and claiming Olympic gold remain paramount.

Precedent From Peer Negotiations

Recent years have provided instructive models for how star players handle extension timing. Sidney Crosby’s 2024 situation stands as a notable case study: eligible to negotiate starting July 1, 2024, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ captain waited until September 16, just before training camp, before committing to two additional years. Crosby maintained his $8.7 million cap hit—the same figure he’d carried since 2008-09—demonstrating that veteran players can secure favorable terms through patience rather than rushing.

Similarly, Sam Reinhart negotiated a team-friendly eight-year deal worth $69 million with Toronto, finalizing it on June 30, 2024, mere hours before unrestricted free agency opened.

The Broader Context: Who’s Earning What

McDavid currently carries the fourth-highest cap hit in hockey entering 2025-26 at $12.5 million. However, this ranking becomes more contextual when examining recent signings:

Top earners heading into 2025-26:

• Leon Draisaitl (Oilers): $14M – Year 1 of 8-year extension
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): $13.25M – Year 2 of 4-year extension
• Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): $12.6M – Year 3 of 8-year extension
• Mitch Marner (Golden Knights): $12M – Year 1 of 8-year sign-and-trade deal
• Mikko Rantanen (Stars): $12M – Year 1 of 8-year extension

The clustering of these figures reveals market compression among elite talent, while also highlighting that Draisaitl’s $14M puts even McDavid’s earning power in perspective within his own organization.

Strategic Considerations Favoring Extended Negotiations

Matthews’ recent four-year extension demonstrates another viable pathway: securing a substantial deal now while remaining positioned for another massive contract during peak earning years as the cap continues climbing. McDavid’s representation includes the same agent who structured Matthews’ deal, suggesting familiarity with this “bridge contract” approach.

Beyond financial strategy, McDavid maintains deep institutional roots in Edmonton. His best friend Draisaitl is locked in through 2032. His wife Lauren has invested in the community—operating a brick-and-mortar bar and collaborating with the Oilers on her clothing brand, Sports Club Atelier. These personal ties create genuine incentives toward remaining, regardless of pure financial optimization.

The Timeline Question

Industry observers remain split on whether McDavid will sign before or during the 2025-26 season. While precedent exists for signings near training camp—MacKinnon, Nylander, and Pastrnak all finalized deals close to or during the season—there’s counterargument that resolving the contract before camp eliminates distractions that could affect team cohesion.

“I want the group to be as focused and ready as possible from day one,” McDavid emphasized, acknowledging the distraction factor.

However, NHL insider John Shannon suggested on recent podcasts that negotiations haven’t truly commenced, predicting McDavid will carry an unsigned extension into the regular season. This would give him maximum negotiating runway while allowing the salary cap’s trajectory to become even clearer.

The Edmonton Oilers open pre-season action against Calgary on September 21, with their regular-season debut scheduled for October 8. McDavid’s contract status—resolved or pending—will significantly influence how both the organization and fanbase approach those opening weeks.