The Bank of Japan's move has started to make the global markets think. As soon as the rate hike news came out, concerns about carry trades collapsing and liquidity drying up began to surface. But a closer look at what the governor said shows it's not that alarming—this is not a signal of aggressive tightening, but rather a "stabilization of expectations."
The governor repeatedly emphasized a key point: "This is not a shift to tightening, just normalization." Why be so explicit? Because Japan, as one of the world's largest capital exporters, its monetary policy shift directly influences global capital flows. If the market misinterprets it as "aggressive tightening," it could lead to concentrated unwinding of carry trades and chaotic capital movements. Such panic-driven volatility could cause a sell-off. The last time Japan raised rates was in July last year, which caused a flash crash in the US stock market. Now, this "non-tightening" stance aims to prevent a repeat of that situation.
In terms of policy magnitude, the 25 basis points increase is not large, and the pace of rate hikes is clearly not aggressive. Essentially, it's about finding a balance between "extreme easing" and "over-tightening." For the global markets, this isn't about a significant withdrawal of liquidity but rather Japan's gradual guidance of the market to adapt to a normalized monetary environment. In the long run, this approach is more stable and benefits global financial stability. For the crypto world, understanding this means there's no need to overreact to short-term fluctuations in BTC and ETH.
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GamefiEscapeArtist
· 4h ago
It's just a 25 basis point move, why make such a fuss?
Honestly, last year's wave was really scary, but now that the central bank has clearly stated they won't be aggressive, the market should feel at ease.
BTC and ETH may fluctuate more in the short term, but they won't surpass the long-term logic. Those who understand have already jumped on board.
Normalization is normalization; it's healthier than continuously printing money.
That flash crash in July last year—what are we still afraid of? Will history repeat itself? The central bank has already said it won't.
It really depends on whether the market can understand the three words "normalization," or else we'll see another wave of panic selling.
Is 25 basis points considered a rate hike? I think it's just the central bank doing psychological conditioning.
Long-term stability > short-term volatility; people in the crypto space should have understood this long ago.
Rather than obsessing over the central bank's wording, it's better to look at the next policy direction.
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AirdropHarvester
· 4h ago
The flash crash last July is still vivid in my memory. This time, the central bank governor emphasizing "non-tightening" is a lesson learned.
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DeFiVeteran
· 4h ago
The central bank's move can be summarized as "Don't panic, we're not aggressive," fearing that the market might misinterpret and cause a stampede. The 25bp adjustment is really not painful; it's much milder than the shock last year. The crypto world should actually thank the Bank of Japan's "stability expectation show."
The Bank of Japan's move has started to make the global markets think. As soon as the rate hike news came out, concerns about carry trades collapsing and liquidity drying up began to surface. But a closer look at what the governor said shows it's not that alarming—this is not a signal of aggressive tightening, but rather a "stabilization of expectations."
The governor repeatedly emphasized a key point: "This is not a shift to tightening, just normalization." Why be so explicit? Because Japan, as one of the world's largest capital exporters, its monetary policy shift directly influences global capital flows. If the market misinterprets it as "aggressive tightening," it could lead to concentrated unwinding of carry trades and chaotic capital movements. Such panic-driven volatility could cause a sell-off. The last time Japan raised rates was in July last year, which caused a flash crash in the US stock market. Now, this "non-tightening" stance aims to prevent a repeat of that situation.
In terms of policy magnitude, the 25 basis points increase is not large, and the pace of rate hikes is clearly not aggressive. Essentially, it's about finding a balance between "extreme easing" and "over-tightening." For the global markets, this isn't about a significant withdrawal of liquidity but rather Japan's gradual guidance of the market to adapt to a normalized monetary environment. In the long run, this approach is more stable and benefits global financial stability. For the crypto world, understanding this means there's no need to overreact to short-term fluctuations in BTC and ETH.