The five-year miner lock-up period for FIL has officially been lifted, and the crypto market immediately erupted in excitement. On one side, the skeptics are shouting "miners are fleeing," predicting a sharp drop in the token price; on the other side, optimists see this as a good opportunity for "bubble squeezing and returning to value." But equating the withdrawal of miners with retail investors bottoming out is too naive—Filecoin's network ecosystem logic and token economic model are much more complex than that.

Looking at history makes this clear. When the mainnet launched in 2020, some short-term locked-in miners unleashed a frenzy of selling after unlocking, directly dropping FIL from its peak by 85%. That event still casts a shadow over the market today. But the key point is that the current situation has completely changed. The current share of real storage transactions on the Filecoin network has reached 51%. The ecosystem has shifted from being "subsidy-driven" to "demand-driven," no longer relying on block rewards to sustain itself. In other words, the value support for FIL has shifted from miner earnings to actual commercial applications, and the threat of pure sell pressure to the token price will significantly diminish.

Let's also consider why miners want to withdraw. It’s not that they don’t believe in FIL’s long-term value; rather, dual pressures are at play—funds turnover needs and changes in the market environment. According to Filecoin’s staking mechanism, miners must lock in 540 days of tokens as collateral initially, and 75% of the block rewards will only be linearly released after another 180 days. Under this mechanism, unlocking at maturity is a normal capital flow and also a market validation of the ecosystem’s strength.