Market dynamics often have hope and despair separated by just a thin line. But sometimes, hope can be more deadly than despair.

My friend Sister Bei recently cleared all her positions and posted a heartbreaking comment on social media: "Endured the bear market three years ago, but almost died in this bull run." She lost millions this round and is now holding a vacant position, waiting. As someone who has been in the crypto space for many years, I understand her helplessness, but I have reservations about her choice.

Just looking at the data makes it clear. Ethereum has only had three months of gains this year—May, July, and August. Even with continuous inflows of ETF funds from Wall Street, three-quarters of the months in this so-called "bull market" have been declining. If you hold from April 2021 until now, four and a half years have passed, and based on current prices, long-term holders' accounts are basically zero. Honestly, this can drive people crazy.

Yesterday was even worse. Nearly 160,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $580 million. We've seen scenes like this many times in the crypto world. But the most heartbreaking part is—long-term holders are starting to withdraw. On-chain data shows that in the past month, those veteran Bitcoin holders sold off 815,000 BTC, the largest wave since early 2024.

Interestingly, market sentiment has shown a strange split. The fear index hit a six-month low, and investors don't seem as scared anymore. On the other hand, whales holding over 1,000 BTC are actually increasing their positions, with holdings up by 2.1%. What does this mean? Major funds are accumulating at low prices, while retail investors are frantically selling off. The game has always been like this—big players eat the meat, small players drink the soup, and sometimes even the soup is out of reach.

Ethereum's fundamentals are actually not weak, but its market performance doesn't match up. When this divergence will be repaired, no one knows.