#大户持仓动态 Recently, the trend of BTC gives the impression that the traditional four-year cycle may be about to be broken. Wall Street analysts generally believe that this bull market cycle will last longer, with the peak most likely occurring in mid-2026. But to say it will keep rising all the way? That's probably overthinking it, and we need to watch out for some macro-level shocks.

How do on-chain data look? According to CryptoQuant's monitoring, $BTC is currently clearly in a pressure phase—miners are accelerating their sell-offs, exchange BTC reserves are increasing, and even some long-term holders are starting to waver. Interestingly, despite the market being in panic, some whales are taking contrarian positions, indicating that smart money is betting. The risk of central bank policy tightening does exist, so the most practical advice is: don't rush to chase highs, be patient and look for bottoming opportunities.

Looking at recent price performance, over the past day, $BTC has been fluctuating in the range of 86,846 to 88,882, currently around 88,178, not far from the main resistance level at 88,366. In the short term, we need to keep a close eye. The support zone below is between 84,408 and 86,795; if it breaks below this, consider stopping losses promptly. You should also keep an eye on $ETH.