Will 118 TGE projects in 2025 face a major crash? Data reveals the harsh reality behind 84.7% of the breakouts

Question

【ChainWen】A phenomenon worth paying attention to. Recently, an institution analyzed 118 TGE projects launched in 2025. Comparing the current FDV with the valuation at issuance, the results are quite sobering—84.7% of the projects (over 100) currently have FDV below the issuance price. In other words, 4 out of 5 new projects will directly break the price after launch.

Even more severe is the extent of the break. The median FDV of these projects has dropped by 71% compared to the issuance valuation (in terms of market cap, the decline is 67%). That means if you buy at the TGE price, you are facing a 70% loss now. Only 15% of the tokens in the entire market are still rising.

From this data, the token generation events in 2025 do not look like “new opportunities” at all, but rather an investor screening test. Overinflated project valuations, investors’ lack of risk awareness, and market sentiment volatility are all amplifying the break phenomena. If you want to participate during the TGE stage, you need to be more cautious in assessing the project’s fundamentals and team background.

DegenWhisperer · Accepted Answer

Here comes more data on being played for suckers, 84.7% fall below the issue price and I believe it

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Out of five, four drop by seventy percent, how much can one buy the dip?

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Lack of risk awareness? To put it bluntly, it&#39;s just greed

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TGE lottery is truly a playground for gamblers, don&#39;t believe in any new opportunities

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How to choose projects that still rise by 15%? It&#39;s purely a matter of luck, right?

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Players have long been aware that the valuation is inflated, yet they still rush in, this is absurd

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Will it fall below the issue price directly when it opens in 2025? Will anyone go to catch a falling knife next time?

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What is the experience of a seventy percent loss like, just thinking about it is unbearable

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The project party&#39;s valuation is a joke, and investors have to laugh along

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Why are there still people playing TGE? Isn&#39;t this just giving away money?

FlashLoanPhantom · Answer

No way, 84.7% drop below the issue price? How exaggerated are these numbers?

Wait, are they still cutting fresh leek?

Four out of five projects fail, that's a pretty extreme ratio.

70% loss? I calculated it... I don't want to bother.

Really? Only 15% are still alive?

Feels like this year's TGE is just a big casino.

It doesn't matter if the project team overvalues the project; as long as we suffer heavy losses, it's all good.

How many people have been trapped recently?

Such a brutal drop below the issue price, who would still dare to buy in?

A 71% decline, that must be really painful.

PumpDoctrine · Answer

Again, the price has broken below the launch price, and this time it's so tragic

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Oh my, 84.7%, how outrageous is this number

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Only brave investors dare to chase TGE

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Overinflated valuations have been played out, investors still haven't learned to be smart

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Seventy percent loss, why are there still people willing to take the risk

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15% is still rising, I just want to know who the 15 lucky ones are

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Is this the "opportunity" everyone is hyping up? Laughs

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Breaking below the launch price again, still want to make money? It all depends on your eye for it

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Project teams inflate valuations to the sky, retail investors take the bait—same old story

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Four out of five projects fail, anyone would need to stay sober

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So now, are we screening investors or screening projects?

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Market sentiment swings greatly, it's just code words, actually just cutting the leeks.

GasFeeCrybaby · Answer

Is it the same old story? Overvalued, broken, trapped, just a cycle

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Four out of five fail, I see this as a mechanism to weed out the weak

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A 71% drop, who can withstand that……

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Still the same old routine, project teams boast, retail investors buy in, no new tricks

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15% gains are probably from those mainstream coins, don’t expect much from the rest

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It was about time for this, the market needs a wash

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TGE=Token Getting Emptied? LOL

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Lack of risk awareness? Basically, greed

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Just watch the show, don’t go all-in on this kind of thing

ForkTongue · Answer

More data about cutting leeks again, 84.7% drop below the offering price. This is not a project, it's a sieve.

Overinflated valuations are ridiculous. Luckily, I didn't get in.

Seventy percent loss? Just thinking about it is frightening. I will definitely not touch TGE.

15% still rising? That's just good luck. Most people are just bagholders.

This market really, when you see opportunities, you want to jump in, but in the end, it's all traps.

StealthMoon · Answer

It's the same old trick, no matter how fancy the packaging, if it breaks, it breaks.

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84.7%? Oh my goodness, this data is really incredible.

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Four out of five are dead, this is the "opportunity" of web3.

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Overinflated valuations, they really should let the project teams experience a 30% discount.

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They dare to call it a "screening exam," I think it's a rookie training class.

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And there are still people praising the future of new projects every day, hilarious.

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A 71% drop, only 15% are rising? This is more like gambling, brother.

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Project teams inflate valuations, investors are the bagholders, market sentiment manipulates, a perfect combination.

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The only thing is, no one wants to calmly ask: why is it worth so much?

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Looking at this data, I feel relieved, it shows no one is worse off than me.