The full island closure policy in Hainan has been implemented, reshaping an entire industrial chain. From duty-free consumption to cross-border logistics, from air transportation to energy manufacturing, the structural opportunities released by this reform are far more abundant than they appear on the surface.

**Absolute Winner in Duty-Free Consumption**

China Duty Free (601888) holds an almost unshakable position in this market rally. As the world's largest duty-free operator, it dominates over 80% of the Hainan market share, controlling key channels such as Sanya International Duty-Free City and Haikou Sun Moon Plaza. More importantly, after the closure, the coverage of "zero tariff" products expanded from 21% directly to 74%, unlocking high-margin categories like luxury goods and high-end home appliances. The "immediate purchase and pickup" policy optimization has improved the shopping experience, with the average transaction value expected to jump from 12,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan, a 50% increase. At this pace, Hainan's revenue is projected to reach about 45 billion yuan in 2025, and by 2026, it is expected to reach 60-65 billion yuan, with net profit rising from 11 billion yuan to 15.5-17 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 40%-55%.

**Monopolist in Logistics Hub**

Haixia Shares (002320) controls 60%-90% of passenger and freight transport across the Qiongzhou Strait (statistics vary), handling 80% of personnel and goods flow between Hainan and the mainland. This monopoly position has become a strong competitive track after the closure—cross-border logistics demand surges are inevitable. It is estimated that by 2026, freight volume could reach 30 million tons, an 80% year-over-year increase. The deployment of new energy roll-on/roll-off ships is quietly boosting capacity ceilings, with freight rates expected to increase by 20%-25%. From pure numbers, net profit is forecasted to grow from 500 million yuan to 850-950 million yuan, a 70%-90% increase. This certainty ranks among the top in the entire logistics sector.

**New Duty-Free Approach in Passenger Transport Network**

Haite Group (603069) has a different approach. After acquiring Hailv Duty-Free, it has formed a complete "passenger transport network + duty-free shopping" closed loop—152 passenger stations across the province have become duty-free pickup points, covering 90% of scenic area traffic. This effectively converts existing passenger transport advantages directly into duty-free sales channels. Data shows that the conversion rate driven by traffic diversion can exceed 30%, and by 2024, duty-free revenue accounted for 40%. With the increase in tourist numbers after the closure, duty-free demand will be directly stimulated, and overall performance elasticity could exceed 100%. Market analysts are generally optimistic about its market capitalization growth potential.

**Dual Benefits of the Aviation Hub**

Hainan Airport (600515) controls the three major airports: Meilan, Sanya, and Boao, handling 90% of Hainan's air passenger flow. More astutely, it also holds stakes in airport duty-free shops, sharing rental income annually. The policy of closure has increased the density of international routes, with international travelers expected to surpass 5 million in 2025, directly amplifying the synergy between aviation revenue and duty-free commerce. In 2024, duty-free revenue share is expected to exceed 30%, with net profit growth estimated between 30%-50%. The current PB valuation is only 2.61 times, which is relatively reasonable.

**Cost Breakthrough in Photovoltaic Manufacturing**

Junda Co., Ltd. (002865) is a core player in Hainan's photovoltaic industry chain. The "zero tariff" policy allows it to significantly reduce imported equipment costs. Its Danzhou base, which exports to Southeast Asia, also benefits from processing value-added duty-free policies, with some product tariffs reduced by up to 80%. By 2025, TOPCon cell capacity is expected to reach 10GW, with technological advantages in conversion efficiency supporting continuous market share expansion. Driven by cost reductions and capacity releases, performance growth could surpass industry averages, estimated at over 50%, with strong long-term growth certainty.

**Summary of the Sector**

The benefits of Hainan's closure are not just isolated breakthroughs but systematically encompass duty-free consumption, cross-border logistics, infrastructure upgrades, and clean energy as four main lines. These companies, leveraging resource monopoly, policy adaptability, and first-mover advantages in their respective tracks, are beneficiaries of both short-term performance elasticity and long-term industrial upgrading. However, it should be noted that growth forecasts for some companies (such as China Duty Free and Haixia Shares) are still based on the pace of policy implementation and market demand matching; actual performance may be affected by macroeconomic changes. Continuous attention should be paid to the further implementation of closure details and the actual fulfillment of orders by these companies.