#大户持仓动态 The Bank of Japan suddenly raises interest rates, and the global financial markets are starting to tighten. The recently announced policy shows that Japan has officially raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%. Although the single adjustment seems modest (25 basis points), the underlying changes could cause a big upheaval—the nearly $9 trillion yen arbitrage capital is quietly retreating.

What exactly is going on? Over the past few years, global investors have been arbitraging: borrowing low-interest yen in Japan and investing in various assets worldwide, from stocks to commodities and cryptocurrencies. The price movements of assets like $ETH, $DOGE, and $ASTER are, to some extent, influenced by this capital flow. But now, the interest rate differential between the US and Japan is narrowing, and the cost of borrowing yen is rising. This capital is about to exit.

The problem isn't just that. Japan's fiscal policy is also stepping up— a new round of supplementary budgets reaching 2.8% of GDP, along with plans to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP. Coupled with measures like consumption tax reductions, the pressure on the Japanese debt market is mounting.

Liquidity contraction combined with increasing debt pressures are like two giant forces tightening a noose around global financial conditions. Exchange rates are the first to be affected, and the bond market is uneasy, but the real shockwave may gradually propagate to equities, commodities, and even influence the pricing logic of cryptocurrencies.

The question now is: which market will be hit first by this yen-driven "capital tide reversal"? Will global asset allocation face a new round of re-pricing? What are your thoughts on this upheaval?